Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012

.UPDATE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER N CENTRAL FL
WHILE A WEAK SURGE OF NE FL HAS MOVED INTO SE GA AND EXTREME NE FL
AREA. A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PROVIDING LIFT IN THE
FORM OF PVA AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL
PENINSULA MAINLY S OF THE BIG BEND AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR 1.8 INCHES) AND
LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE TO LIKELY POP SCENARIO FOR NE FL AND
LOWER END POPS OVER SE GA. ALREADY HAVE SBCAPES OF 1500 J/KG IN NE
FL AND ANTICIPATE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
CAN'T DISCOUNT AN ISOLD STRONG STORM GIVEN AMPLE BULK SHEAR AND
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT BUT PROBABILITIES LOOK TO BE LOW. MINOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND TWEAK POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL BUT ANTICIPATE MVFR VSBY AND CIGS
IN PRECIP SHIFTING FROM SW TO NE TODAY. IFR VSBY/CIGS POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTIVE BUT AT THIS TIME RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS DON'T
SUPPORT IT.

&&

.MARINE...NELY FLOW TODAY/TONIGHT AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 2-3 FT.
NO HEADLINES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER SWELL CONDS THAN
PRIOR DAYS. SEAS ABOUT 2 FT OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  66  88  66 /  40  10  20  20
SSI  81  71  82  73 /  40  20  30  20
JAX  82  68  84  68 /  60  30  30  30
SGJ  81  72  84  72 /  60  30  40  30
GNV  83  68  86  69 /  70  30  40  40
OCF  83  69  87  70 /  70  30  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHASHY/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1010 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-210933-
ALACHUA-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-APPLING-
ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN (COASTAL)-
CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT TO 20 NM-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
GLYNN (COASTAL)-GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-
PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1010 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL POSITION OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CREATE NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
NEAR AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO EAST
AROUND 10 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ABE/ARS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1143 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012

FLZ025-201615-
DUVAL-
1143 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL DUVAL
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 1215 PM EDT...

AT 1143 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTH OF FORT CAROLINE...
STATIONARY. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
TALLYRAND...OCEANWAY...FORT CAROLINE...DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...
ARLINGTON...UNF AND SAN PABLO THROUGH 1215 PM EDT. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3027 8166 3050 8167 3051 8146 3027 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 1543Z 321DEG 1KT 3034 8150

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1215 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012

FLZ025-033-201645-
DUVAL-ST. JOHNS-
1215 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME
NORTHERN ST. JOHNS AND EASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

AT 1215 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAN PABLO...MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
UNF...FORT CAROLINE...SAN PABLO...MAYPORT...SAWGRASS...PONTE VEDRA
BEACH...JACKSONVILLE BEACH AND NEPTUNE BEACH THROUGH 1245 PM EDT.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3026 8157 3043 8151 3041 8140 3040 8139
      3023 8137 3020 8136 3019 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 286DEG 5KT 3032 8144

SHASHY