Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

.UPDATE...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS FROM SRN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS
GA TO NC COAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM NEARBY LOCATIONS SHOW DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SATELLITE SHOWS A CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH STREAMING ACROSS
THE GULF OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THIS MOISTURE BAND OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB ARE AROUND -7C AND PWATS
ARE NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS AND EXPECT MID 80S AT BEST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE SOUTH PORTION. STRONGER STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY OVER NE FL WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND OUTFLOWS AND SEA BREEZES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UPLIFT.
OTHER THAN HEAVY RAINFALL...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NE FL...BUT SPC
HAS 5% CHANCE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE AMENDED TAFS TO KEEP LIFR CIGS UNTIL 15Z AND THEN MVFR AS
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS PEAKED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...THEN BEGAN
DECREASING AT 12Z. SINCE THE NOCTURNAL SURGE IS PAST...WILL DROP
THE SCEC HEADLINE FOR OFFSHORE LEGS AND GO WITH 15 KT FOR
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SEAS ARE RUNNING 1 TO 3 FT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
SSI  85  75  84  74 /  60  60  60  50
JAX  87  74  86  72 /  70  70  70  50
SGJ  88  74  86  73 /  70  60  60  40
GNV  86  72  84  72 /  80  70  70  50
OCF  87  73  86  73 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

MKT/AW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
334 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-210833-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
334 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLAND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEFORE DAWN THIS MORNING.

AFTER SUNRISE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS. ACTIVITY WILL TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60
MPH AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
WHICH WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON THURSDAY...THEN OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AN INCREASE IN RIP
CURRENT RISK IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...OR
IS WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1127 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     LIGHTNING        BUNNELL                 29.47N 81.26W
08/19/2012                   FLAGLER            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LIGHTNING STRUCK AN ANTENNA ON THE FLAGLER COUNTY
            EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER. THE ANTENNA WAS BLOWN TO
            PIECES. THE LIGHTNING PROTECTION SYSTEM WORKED. NO OTHER
            DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO THE BUILDING.

&&

MTRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1211 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FLZ021-201645-
SUWANNEE-
1211 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
SUWANNEE COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 1245
PM EDT...

AT 1212 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES WEST OF BRANFORD...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MAYO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BRANFORD...OBRIEN...
MCALPIN...ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS STATE PARK AND HILDRETH THROUGH 1245 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS
STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY
BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3026 8287 3012 8279 2999 8279 2999 8276
      2997 8276 2993 8280 2989 8289 2989 8292
      2995 8293 2995 8295 2999 8297 3007 8307
      3009 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 1612Z 238DEG 16KT 2999 8303

HESS