Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
938 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...HIGH RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER S GA
INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF GA AND THE NE GULF...WITH A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NE GULF WHERE A STRONGER
VORTICITY CENTER IS LOCATED. THIS VORTICITY CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO OUR SRN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTN. OTHERWISE...JUST A
FEW SHOWERS SO FAR OVER THE SRN ZONES AND SOME ISOLD SPRINKLES
MOVING THROUGH SE GA AND INLAND NE FL. THE 12Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWS
HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.94 INCHES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPS OF -8C. DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCD WITH PVA FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL
COVERAGE TODAY AND WE HAVE 60-70% POPS PAINTED IN OUR CWA THROUGH
6 PM. FOR TONIGHT...40-60% POPS ARE FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES IN
THE EVENING FROM 6PM-10PM.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES FOR THIS
AFTN OVER OUR SRN ZONES WHERE OVERALL LIFT IS MORE FAVORED. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR...MAY BE TWEAKING UP POPS FURTHER BY 10-20% OVER
S ZONES AND NEAR THE E COAST. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS 1-2 DEGS DUE
TO CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE STRONG
DOWN-BURSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO GROUPS WARRANTED TODAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING
FOR GNV THIS MORNING WITH TSRA POSSIBLE THERE WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HRS.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL HOLD OFF TSRA FOR REST OF TAFS UNTIL
MAINLY AFTERNOON HRS...THOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BEFORE THEN. TEMPO IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN TSRA THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY
WINDS. CONVECTION CHANCES DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WINDS ARE SW AROUND 10 KT AT
BUOYS WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 2 FT OR LESS. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS AROUND NOON ONWARD.
BOATERS WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WX CONDS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK WITH SURF ONLY ABOUT 1 FOOT AT LOCAL
BEACHES. LOW RISK EXPECTED SAT AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  73  89  73 /  60  30  50  40
SSI  89  77  87  77 /  60  40  50  50
JAX  91  73  90  74 /  60  50  60  60
SGJ  89  74  90  74 /  60  50  60  60
GNV  90  73  87  74 /  70  40  60  50
OCF  90  73  88  73 /  70  40  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHASHY/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-180928-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
430 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. STORMS WILL TRACK WEST AROUND 10 MPH...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY EXPECTED NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI

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