Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
214 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALONG THE GULF
COAST WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTN...AND LINING UP WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE ACRS SRN GA INTO SC.
STORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AND WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE AFTN AS THESE
FEATURES COLLIDE. PWATS OF 2+ INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONGT. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT EXCEPT
FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE BIG BEND REGION OF THE GULF COAST.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD I-75 LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NE OFF
THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO SE GA. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED POPS CONFINED TO NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA NEAR
SEABREEZE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. WILL
GO WITH SCATTERED POPS AREA WIDE ON TUE. SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SEABREEZE COLLISIONS NEAR THE EAST COAST EACH DAY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH WITH TROUGHING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WITH PWATS MOSTLY IN 1.75-2" RANGE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY REACHING THE
EAST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NOCTURNAL SURGES WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE
AND SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE MOSTLY BE IN 2 TO 3
FOOT RANGE. LATE DAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS OVER LAND
MOVE INTO THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  93  71  95 /  50  10   0  10
SSI  76  92  77  90 /  50  20  20  10
JAX  72  94  74  94 /  50  40  40  30
SGJ  75  92  76  91 /  50  30  30  40
GNV  72  93  74  94 /  40  30  20  50
OCF  72  94  74  95 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ZIBURA/TRABERT/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
405 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-121000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
405 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO
COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 15
MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
246 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

GAZ134>136-151-111915-
APPLING-BACON-PIERCE-WAYNE-
246 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
WAYNE...NORTHERN PIERCE...SOUTHEASTERN APPLING AND EASTERN BACON
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 247 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRISTOL...OR 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF PATTERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BRISTOL...SCREVEN
AND ODUM THROUGH 315 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3178 8198 3146 8194 3132 8233 3156 8230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 240DEG 16KT 3150 8224

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
344 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

GAZ136-152>154-112015-
BRANTLEY-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND GLYNN-WAYNE-
344 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WAYNE...NORTHEASTERN BRANTLEY AND NORTHWESTERN GLYNN COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 345 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES WEST OF MOUNT PLEASANT...OR 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GARDI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WAYNESVILLE...THALMANN...
GARDI...EVERETT AND MOUNT PLEASANT THROUGH 415 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3148 8165 3128 8150 3117 8194 3162 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 239DEG 17KT 3143 8171

ZIBURA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
407 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST. SIMONS              31.18N 81.38W
08/11/2012  M58 MPH          GLYNN              GA   ASOS

            A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE MALCOLM
            MCKINNON AIRPORT IN ST. SIMONS.

&&

SHULER

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