Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN
GRADUALLY FADE THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FRIDAY...TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WHILE THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
STORMS INITIATING OVER INLAND AREAS AND THEN TRACKING OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE A LINGERING BAND OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
DRIER AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH A FOCUS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS WILL INCREASE AND
THE SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA WITHIN A 5% WIND THREAT
PROBABILITY. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 100 DEGREES.

SATURDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND BRING A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS. ALTHOUGH
LESSER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WITH ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 90S
INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH AND DRY AIR INFILTRATION ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY HOTTER
TEMPERATURES. POPS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 20 TO 30
PERCENT...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. EXTRA INSOLATION WILL LIKELY PUSH MAX TEMPS
UP INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE TEMPO TSRA IN TAFS UNTIL 21Z...AND TIL 22Z FOR SSI
AS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
HAVE VCTS TIL 01Z AT SSI WITH STORMS DISSIPATING BEFORE OR AROUND
THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH. NOCTURNAL SURGES WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
POSSIBLE SCEC HEADLINES NEEDED FOR OFFSHORE ZONE. SEAS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK AS OFFSHORE FLOW DOMINATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  72  93 /  50  60  50  70
SSI  75  89  75  89 /  40  30  30  50
JAX  72  93  73  92 /  40  40  30  40
SGJ  74  91  74  91 /  40  20  20  30
GNV  72  93  72  93 /  20  20  20  30
OCF  72  94  72  92 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHULER/ZIBURA/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
334 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-101000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
334 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES OF ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH STORMS TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
358 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FLZ032-033-037-092030-
CLAY-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-
358 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
CLAY...NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM AND CENTRAL ST. JOHNS COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTH OF PICOLATA...OR 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND PICOLATA...ELKTON...VILANO
BEACH...SAINT AUGUSTINE AND BAKERSVILLE THROUGH 430 PM EDT.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2987 8166 3003 8148 3004 8137 2992 8129
      2978 8142 2975 8154 2980 8162 2982 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 226DEG 11KT 2983 8159

SHASHY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
432 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FLZ033-092100-
ST. JOHNS-
432 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN ST.
JOHNS COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

AT 432 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH TO CRESCENT BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND SAINT AUGUSTINE
SOUTH...SAINT AUGUSTINE SHORES...SAINT AUGUSTINE...DUPONT
CENTER...VILANO BEACH...SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH...SOUTH PONTE VEDRA
BEACH...CRESCENT BEACH...BUTLER BEACH AND ANASTASIA THROUGH 500 PM
EDT. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2965 8135 2983 8145 3005 8146 3010 8133
      2994 8129 2988 8126 2979 8125 2970 8121
      2968 8121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 252DEG 14KT 3004 8135 2973 8126

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
448 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

GAZ134-150-151-092130-
BACON-PIERCE-WARE-
448 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
WARE...PIERCE AND BACON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

AT 448 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF WARESBORO...OR 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WAYCROSS...WARESBORO...
BICKLEY...SUNNYSIDE...DEENWOOD...DIXIE UNION...PATTERSON...NEW
LACY...BRISTOL AND ALMA THROUGH 530 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3144 8261 3161 8246 3156 8227 3141 8211
      3119 8239 3118 8245 3126 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 220DEG 12KT 3129 8249

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
501 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FLZ033-038-092130-
FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS-
501 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ST. JOHNS AND NORTHEASTERN FLAGLER COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID
UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 501 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER PALM COAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PALM
COAST...FLAGLER BEACH AND MARINELAND THROUGH 530 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS
OF 35 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2942 8111 2941 8115 2938 8114 2934 8118
      2964 8131 2972 8122 2944 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 224DEG 14KT 2958 8120

SHASHY