Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
206 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR AS MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND A TROPICAL
WAVE TO THE WEST...WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WITH SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES. THE CONVECTION
TO THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST...WITH THE COASTAL
ACTIVITY PUSHING TO THE WEST WITH THE SEABREEZE. THE RESULT WILL
BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS BY LATE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE GREATEST CONCERN. IN
ADDITION...WITH RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION AND A VERY RICH
ATMOSPHERE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LOWER TO
MID 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FOR TUESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION WILL
DIG SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO NUDGE
WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE FL PENINSULA. THE FLOW WILL TILT
MORE TO THE S/SW. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP COVERAGE...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS IN THE MID AFTN WHERE NUMEROUS POPS WILL BE
USED...WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...EXPECT A FAIRLY
MOIST FLOW REGIME...LEADING TO MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
EACH DAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECT THE PEAK OF
CONVECTION FROM AROUND 20Z TO 00Z. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN DURING
THE EVENING...AND TRAIL OFF DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS
GETTING GOING AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BECOME SOUTH TNGT/TUESDAY...THEN S/SW FOR
MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
WITH POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL SURGES OFFSHORE APPROACHING CAUTION
CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE INTO THIS EVENING...BECOMING LOW TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT MOIST SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK YIELDING RH VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LIMITS...IN ADDITION TO ROUNDS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  72  90 /  50  60  40  50
SSI  79  88  76  87 /  40  60  40  50
JAX  74  91  74  90 /  50  60  40  40
SGJ  76  91  75  88 /  30  60  40  40
GNV  72  90  72  90 /  50  60  40  40
OCF  73  90  72  90 /  50  60  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/STRUBLE/CHASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
356 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-071000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL
GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
356 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE AREA BEACHES...

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND BECOME
NUMEROUS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF OVER
2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING SWELLS. REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
249 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

FLZ040-061930-
MARION-
249 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

AT 250 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JUNIPER SPRINGS...
OR 7 MILES WEST OF PAISLEY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND JUNIPER SPRINGS THROUGH
330 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2896 8174 2913 8189 2937 8172 2937 8167
      2936 8166 2934 8166 2933 8168 2928 8164
      2905 8163 2904 8165 2896 8166 2895 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 143DEG 7KT 2902 8166

STRUBLE