Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
157 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE FL...WITH
INITIAL SHOWERS FORMING IN SE GA. AS INTERACTION WITH SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES INCREASE THIS AFTN...EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE
TO NUMEROUS ACROSS NE FL...WITH HIGH END SCATTERED FOR SE GA.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AND RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH
FLORIDA. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH AFTN/EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTH INTERACT WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. AS THE
TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AMPLIFIES
SOME...EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE FRIDAY TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN
THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE NORTHWARD SATURDAY
RESULTING IN LOWER POPS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL...WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS GA CLOSER TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS/ECMWF BRINGS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW
MUCH TAP IS BROUGHT INTO THE AREA...WILL USE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
RIDGING IS PROGGED BY MIDWEEK FOR SOME DRYING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND EXPECT
CONVECTION AT THE JACKSONVILLE FIELDS THROUGH...AT LEAST...2200 UTC.
LOOKING AT BASES ABOUT 4 KFT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER
SCEC CRITERIA...WITH SOME NOCTURNAL SURGE AT NIGHT OFFSHORE UP TO
15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL MOSTLY BE IN 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO TONIGHT. LOW RISK THURSDAY WITH
DECREASED EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  93  73  93 /  40  60  60  50
SSI  75  91  76  92 /  40  40  40  40
JAX  72  92  73  93 /  50  60  60  40
SGJ  74  91  75  91 /  50  50  50  40
GNV  71  93  73  93 /  50  60  50  40
OCF  71  93  73  93 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/SANDRIK/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
952 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-
149>154-162>166-191000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
952 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST
ABOUT 10 MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO EASTERLY
SWELLS. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF SWIMMING AT THE BEACHES AND ALWAYS
SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF LIFEGUARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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