Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
309 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SW ATLANTIC IS PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY
STEERING FLOW TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN. AN INVERTED MID
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE FL WEST COAST IS DRIFTING INTO THE GULF BUT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL VORT MAX HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION WEST OF I-75. AS ADVERTISED SCATTERED STORMS ARE
FIRING ALONG SEA AND RIVER BREEZES PRIMARILY OVER THE SRN ZONES.
UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE OVER SE GA AND
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING. MODELS
INDICATE A SURFACE TROUGH SINKS SWD OVER GA ALLOWING FOR A
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS OVERNIGHT FOR THE NRN PORTION OF SE GA AND
WILL CONTINUE 10-20% POPS.

WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE WED/THU AS RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SHIFTS NWD AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST TO EAST.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
TROPICS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS INCREASING ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND
COASTAL AREAS...THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH AFTN/EVENING. WILL GO WITH
50-60% POPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY AS THE EAST COAST DRIES OUT LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT
HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S WED AND UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THURS.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH
WELL INLAND EACH DAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
THEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTN. WILL KEEP MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT SEWD WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHERLY. A WEAK FLOW
PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF THE STORMS
INLAND. HAVE CONTINUED WITH VCTS AT GNV AND MAY NEED VCTS AT VQQ AND
JAX AFT 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SHIFT NORTH BY
LATER THIS WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WINDS STRONGER AT NIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST UNDER HEADLINE
CRITERIA. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH S/SW FLOW...THEN
POSSIBLY MODERATE AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OF THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  95  73  94 /  20  50  50  50
SSI  78  89  77  88 /  20  20  20  20
JAX  75  93  73  90 /  30  30  30  30
SGJ  75  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  30
GNV  72  92  73  91 /  30  50  50  50
OCF  72  93  73  91 /  30  50  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

MKT/PP/ARS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
450 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-111045-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
450 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND SANTA
FE RIVER...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG STRETCHES OF THE SUWANNEE AND
SANTA FE RIVER BASINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
WARNING PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
503 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FLZ023-030-102145-
BAKER-UNION-
503 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAKER
AND NORTHERN UNION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 503 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAIFORD...MOVING
NORTH AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND RAIFORD AND JOHNSTOWN THROUGH 545 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3019 8240 3023 8220 3006 8222 3003 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 165DEG 6KT 3009 8228

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
517 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FLZ023-102200-
BAKER-
517 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL BAKER
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 517 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANDERSON...OR 9 MILES
NORTH OF RAIFORD...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SANDERSON...GLEN SAINT MARY AND
MACCLENNY THROUGH 600 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3035 8230 3034 8209 3014 8216 3015 8230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 185DEG 11KT 3021 8222

PETERSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
611 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     LIGHTNING        GAINESVILLE             29.67N 82.34W
07/10/2012                   ALACHUA            FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WCJC REPORTS A LIGHTNING STRIKE THAT CAUSED DAMAGE AT A
            BUSINESS ALONG NORTHWEST 13TH STREET IN GAINESVILLE. TIME
            OF INCIDENT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

0519 PM     HAIL             5 ESE ORTEGA            30.24N 81.63W
07/10/2012  E0.25 INCH       DUVAL              FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WTEV REPORTS PEA SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THAT UPROOTED
            A SMALL DIAMETER TREE NEAR THE BOLLES SCHOOL.

&&

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
613 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FLZ023-GAZ150-164-102300-
BAKER-CHARLTON-WARE-
613 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WARE...NORTHERN BAKER AND CENTRAL CHARLTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 612 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 18 MILES SOUTH OF STEVEN FOSTER STATE
PARK...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK THROUGH 700 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

LAT...LON 3055 8202 3051 8235 3078 8234 3079 8206
      3068 8204 3065 8205 3062 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 188DEG 8KT 3058 8223

ALLEN