Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

...STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION HAVING A TOUGHER TIME FIRING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE FL WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WITH PWATS DOWN AROUND 1.60 INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET...WHILE ACROSS SE GA
IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND CLOSER TO TROF AXIS...WILL SEE AT LEAST
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THERE WITH HIGHER
RAINFALL THREAT BUT SINCE SE GA HAS MISSED OUT ON SOME OF THE RECENT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER/MID 70S. CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HELP TO KICK OFF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN TWO LOCATIONS...ONE
ALONG ONGOING MCS ACRS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE OTHER ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONTS AND OUTFLOW ACRS NE FL. STORM MOTION STILL GENERALLY
TOWARDS THE EAST AT 10-15 MPH ACROSS SE GA WITH A MORE ERRATIC
MOTION ACROSS NE FL DUE TO SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND OTHER OUTFLOWS.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS NE FL WILL FADE AFTER
SUNSET WHILE CONCERN WILL SHIFT ALONG THE ONGOING LINE OF STORMS
THAT WILL BE ACRS SE GA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUING THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AND COULD HAVE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF AT
LEAST SCTD CONVECTION ACROSS NE FL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL JUST HAVE
TO SEE HOW LINE OF STORMS BEHAVES AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING TO KEEP THE CONVECTION ONGOING TOWARD MORNING.
IF CONVECTION REMAINS ONGOING AND PUSHES INTO NE FL TOWARD MORNING
AND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY...A TRICKIER FORECAST DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. IF STORMS ARE STILL ONGOING...THEN MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH THE STORMS. IF A BREAK IN
CONVECTION EXISTS...THEN SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH STORMS
RE-IGNITING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...HIGH POPS
ARE IN PLACE WITH CATEGORICAL ACRS SE GA AND LIKELY ACRS NE FL AND
THEY MAY BE ABLE TO BE PUSHED EVEN HIGHER IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
HOLDS OVER FROM THE MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS
REBOUNDING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND SLOWER STORM MOTION WILL CONTINUE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A NOTCH COOLER THAN TODAY AROUND 90 DEGREES AND
POSSIBLY ONLY AROUND THE MID 80S IF CONVECTION ONGOING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS LIMITS AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

TUE NIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
EXPECT LIKELY CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS TO BECOME
SCATTERED OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS/NAM STILL HAVE DEEP MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES) AND EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH AT LEAST
LIKELY COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING IN THE MORNING
TO TRIGGER LIKELY COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN
IMPACTS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL
SHIFT STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND ADVECT SOME DRIER AIR INTO
SE GA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS NE FL STILL EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
WITH ISOLD/SCTD CONVECTION ACROSS SE GA. MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
AROUND 90 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NORTH OF THE REGION A E/NE STEERING
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH AIRMASS DRYING OUT AND
EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION COVERAGE TO COME DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AROUND 20-30%. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S COAST AND CLOSER TO THE NORMAL 90
DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

ATLANTIC SEABREEZE HAS CLEARED CRG AND WILL MOVE THROUGH JAX
AROUND 20Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEABREEZE BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z. VQQ AND JAX STAND THE BEST
CHANCES OF BEING IMPACTED DIRECTLY...AND TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN
PLACE. WILL GO WITH VCTS ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR
SSI INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

EVENING SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE NEAR SCEC
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH A SOLID 15 KNOTS...JUST BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MID WEEK. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND
A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TRAIL THE FRONT POSSIBLY REACHING
HEADLINE CRITERIA BY THURSDAY EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  90  70  92 /  80  90  70  50
SSI  74  85  73  87 /  60  80  50  60
JAX  70  90  70  91 /  60  70  60  70
SGJ  72  87  72  87 /  30  60  60  60
GNV  69  90  70  92 /  60  60  60  70
OCF  70  91  71  92 /  50  40  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/SHULER/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1205 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-120838-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
1205 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...

...SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THIS
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND CAUSE
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET.

HEAT INDICES WILL NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT THAT WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI/JCH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
438 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

GAZ132-133-149-112130-
ATKINSON-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-
438 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN JEFF DAVIS...ATKINSON AND COFFEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 438 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WILLACOOCHEE TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILLACOOCHEE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND WILLACOOCHEE...PEARSON...AXSON...AMBROSE...PRIDGEN...
DOUGLAS AND BROXTON THROUGH 530 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3155 8307 3161 8306 3167 8300 3174 8300
      3180 8297 3179 8292 3165 8277 3120 8271
      3119 8305 3127 8304 3133 8307 3136 8311
      3140 8314 3145 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 203DEG 17KT 3142 8309 3131 8306

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
440 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

GAZ136-112115-
WAYNE-
440 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WAYNE COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 440 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTH OF BROADHURST...OR 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GARDI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SCREVEN...BROADHURST...
JESUP...GARDI AND DOCTORTOWN THROUGH 515 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3172 8188 3167 8184 3166 8181 3164 8178
      3159 8171 3158 8169 3156 8169 3135 8186
      3135 8194 3137 8203 3143 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 210DEG 16KT 3145 8192

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
459 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

GAZ132-149-163-112130-
ATKINSON-CLINCH-COFFEE-
459 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ATKINSON...
NORTHWESTERN CLINCH AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 500 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PEARSON TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF DU PONT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PEARSON...DU
PONT...HOMERVILLE...COGDELL AND AXSON THROUGH 530 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3134 8302 3138 8268 3128 8267 3128 8270
      3123 8270 3118 8267 3098 8265 3097 8298
      3118 8298 3118 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 270DEG 13KT 3125 8293 3106 8297

TRABERT