Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
243 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
STORMS WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL OF SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH
HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS WELL. STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE JAX METRO
AREA. ACTIVITY WILL FADE AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD BASICALLY END
ACROSS NE FL AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS SE GA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER AS DRY SLOT WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER NE FL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GENERAL STORM MOTION THIS EVENING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AROUND 15
KNOTS.

MONDAY...LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF AND
ASSOCD WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL
BE PUSHED INTO INLD SE GA WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE VERY LEAST
NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD HEAVY TSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA
WITH SCTD/NUMEROUS ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACRS NE FL BY THE AFTERNOON AS
MORNING SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. NOT SURE IF FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS SE GA SINCE THEY HAVE MISSED SOME OF THE
STORMS OVER PREVIOUS DAYS. HPC 5 DAY QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOWS A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES ACRS NE FL AND 2-3 INCHES ACROSS SE GA
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF MAY
CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS INLD SE
GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME INCHING EASTWARD TOWARDS
MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A PROBLEM WITH THE SLOWER
MOVING ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS STILL CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH STORMS ALL THE WAY TO THE
BEACHES BUT SLOW STORM MOTION WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL. HIGHS
STILL RUNNING CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...TROF AXIS LINGERS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT AT
LEAST NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF TSTM ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS WILL
SURGE QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 90S AHEAD OF AFTERNOON RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DIURNAL SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE REMAINS TO TRIGGER DAILY CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL VALUES AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN PASSING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN BY THIS EVENING AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE OFFSHORE ZONES. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FEET. SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL BECOME OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO HEADLINES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  90  70  90 /  60  70  70  80
SSI  74  85  73  86 /  40  60  60  70
JAX  72  90  70  89 /  50  60  60  70
SGJ  73  86  72  87 /  30  40  40  70
GNV  72  92  70  90 /  40  60  60  70
OCF  72  93  70  91 /  40  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/SHULER/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1000 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-111029-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
1000 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...

...SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE IN HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. A
FASTER STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL
LESSEN THE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE IN RAIN-SATURATED AREAS IS LIKELY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI/JCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
144 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

GAZ149-150-163-101830-
ATKINSON-CLINCH-WARE-
144 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN WARE...
EASTERN ATKINSON AND NORTHERN CLINCH COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 144 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOMERVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND HOMERVILLE...ARGYLE...COGDELL...MANOR...MILLWOOD AND AXSON
THROUGH 230 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3135 8278 3121 8241 3099 8266 3109 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 220DEG 12KT 3107 8271

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
208 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

FLZ023>025-032-GAZ164-101900-
BAKER-CHARLTON-CLAY-DUVAL-NASSAU-
208 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
CLAY...EASTERN BAKER...SOUTHERN CHARLTON...DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES
FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 300
PM EDT...

AT 208 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST OF
ST. GEORGE TO 7 MILES EAST OF ST. GEORGE TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ORTEGA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ORTEGA...ORANGE PARK...NORMANDY...
MANDARIN...LAKESIDE...JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS...BRYCEVILLE...BELLAIR...
BALDWIN AND RIVERSIDE THROUGH 300 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER
INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3013 8164 3013 8197 3032 8228 3083 8212
      3073 8166 3059 8143 3052 8142 3051 8144
      3049 8141 3042 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 224DEG 18KT 3052 8222 3050 8192
          3024 8163

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
212 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

FLZ020>023-GAZ162-163-101900-
BAKER-CLINCH-COLUMBIA-ECHOLS-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-
212 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
CLINCH...ECHOLS...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAKER...NORTHERN COLUMBIA...
HAMILTON AND NORTHERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
SUWANNEE SPRINGS TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHITE SPRINGS TO 12 MILES
EAST OF SUWANNEE VALLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WHITE SPRINGS...SUWANNEE
VALLEY...SUWANNEE SPRINGS...WEST LAKE...BELMONT...JENNINGS...
JASPER...STATENVILLE AND NEEDMORE THROUGH 300 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3081 8310 3062 8244 3024 8256 3030 8276
      3037 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 208DEG 18KT 3040 8304 3038 8271
          3028 8250

NELSON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
249 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

FLZ023-030-101915-
BAKER-UNION-
249 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAKER
AND NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 249 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTOWN...OR 6 MILES
NORTH OF LAKE BUTLER...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND RAIFORD...JOHNSTOWN...
ELLERBEE...OLUSTEE...SANDERSON...MACCLENNY AND GLEN SAINT MARY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3039 8243 3041 8222 3036 8217 3037 8213
      3032 8205 3020 8205 3014 8209 3014 8215
      3012 8214 3003 8224 3002 8227 3008 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 200DEG 17KT 3013 8232

HESS