Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR SE GA AND PARTS OF NE FL...

.TONIGHT...COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SE GA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE STORMS ERUPTING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SAG S INTO SE GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEVERE THREAT
SHIFTING S INTO EXTREME NE FL BY EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH A WEAKENING TREND
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH IMPULSES ROTATING SE INTO THE AREA.
SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG S INTO NE FL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY POPS CONTINUING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS
GULF MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SE GA ON FRIDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFTING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE GA AND MOVE INTO
NE FL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TS...MVFR...GUSTY WINDS AT SSI BETWEEN 18Z-22Z...AT JAX...CRG...VQQ
BETWEEN 20Z-23Z. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH SHRA AND VCTS INTO THE EVE
TIL AROUND 04Z DUE TO FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED FURTHER SOUTH ALONG GULF SEA BREEZE
AND HAVE VCTS WITH CB AT GNV AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT OFFSHORE
AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA AND HAVE AN EXERCISE
CAUTION GOING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DECREASE THURSDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVE WILL BE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  87  67  90 /  70  60  40  20
SSI  73  84  72  82 /  70  70  60  40
JAX  71  87  69  87 /  60  70  60  50
SGJ  74  87  72  85 /  40  60  50  60
GNV  72  87  70  89 /  50  70  50  70
OCF  73  87  71  89 /  40  60  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

ZIBURA/PETERSON/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1240 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-061000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1240 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND A PORTION OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNTIL 9 PM...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AND IT
INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND A PORTION OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WHICH INCLUDES THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA...LAKE
CITY...AND LIVE OAK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND
IN THE WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. AS STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO
EAST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP