Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR SE GA AND PARTS OF NE FL...

.TONIGHT...COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SE GA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE STORMS ERUPTING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SAG S INTO SE GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEVERE THREAT
SHIFTING S INTO EXTREME NE FL BY EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH A WEAKENING TREND
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH IMPULSES ROTATING SE INTO THE AREA.
SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG S INTO NE FL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY POPS CONTINUING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS
GULF MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SE GA ON FRIDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFTING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE GA AND MOVE INTO
NE FL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TS...MVFR...GUSTY WINDS AT SSI BETWEEN 18Z-22Z...AT JAX...CRG...VQQ
BETWEEN 20Z-23Z. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH SHRA AND VCTS INTO THE EVE
TIL AROUND 04Z DUE TO FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED FURTHER SOUTH ALONG GULF SEA BREEZE
AND HAVE VCTS WITH CB AT GNV AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT OFFSHORE
AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA AND HAVE AN EXERCISE
CAUTION GOING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DECREASE THURSDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVE WILL BE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  87  67  90 /  70  60  40  20
SSI  73  84  72  82 /  70  70  60  40
JAX  71  87  69  87 /  60  70  60  50
SGJ  74  87  72  85 /  40  60  50  60
GNV  72  87  70  89 /  50  70  50  70
OCF  73  87  71  89 /  40  60  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

ZIBURA/PETERSON/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1240 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-061000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1240 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND A PORTION OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNTIL 9 PM...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AND IT
INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND A PORTION OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WHICH INCLUDES THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA...LAKE
CITY...AND LIVE OAK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND
IN THE WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. AS STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO
EAST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
317 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

GAZ153-154-052000-
COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND GLYNN-
317 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL GLYNN
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 318 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOCK JUNCTION...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND DOCK JUNCTION...COUNTRY CLUB ESTATES...BRUNSWICK...ST.
SIMONS...GLYNN HAVEN AND SEA ISLAND THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3124 8128 3120 8126 3120 8132 3116 8135
      3113 8134 3112 8135 3113 8138 3109 8140
      3116 8168 3128 8165 3125 8125
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 285DEG 18KT 3117 8157

NELSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             3 NNW BRUNSWICK         31.18N 81.49W
06/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       GLYNN              GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON PARKWOOD DRIVE IN
            BRUNSWICK.

&&

MZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
350 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

GAZ136-151-152-052030-
BRANTLEY-PIERCE-WAYNE-
350 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
WAYNE...SOUTHEASTERN PIERCE AND NORTHERN BRANTLEY COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 350 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES WEST OF HORTENSE...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PATTERSON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PATTERSON...RAYBON...
HORTENSE AND WAYNESVILLE THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER
INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3144 8176 3122 8177 3124 8218 3141 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 267DEG 20KT 3132 8202

NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             5 N BRUNSWICK           31.21N 81.48W
06/05/2012  E0.50 INCH       GLYNN              GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO HALF INCH HAIL FELL ON CARTERET ROAD IN BRUNSWICK.

&&

MZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
403 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

GAZ153-154-165-166-052045-
COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-
403 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
CAMDEN...EASTERN GLYNN AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MCINTOSH COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

AT 403 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER DOCK JUNCTION...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND DOCK
JUNCTION...BRUNSWICK...BOYS ESTATE...COUNTRY CLUB ESTATES...GLYNN
HAVEN...ST. SIMONS...SEA ISLAND AND JEKYLL ISLAND THROUGH 445 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3124 8128 3120 8126 3120 8132 3116 8135
      3113 8134 3113 8138 3111 8139 3101 8140
      3108 8167 3136 8158 3132 8142 3128 8139
      3129 8131 3127 8125 3125 8125
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 292DEG 26KT 3119 8148

NELSON