Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING OVER SUWANNEE VALLEY OF
NE FL WITH MOIST SW FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT WEST COAST SEABREEZE TO
MEET EAST COAST SEABREEZE IN AN AREA JUST WEST OF ST. JOHNS
RIVER...AND INTO INTERIOR SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS(CAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG)WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY AS
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS OCCUR WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND BEHIND UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...POPS WILL RETURN TO
FORECAST ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH DROPS INTO THE SE GA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND INTO NE FL WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY INCREASING THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION AT
GNV...VQQ...JAX AND CRG THROUGH 02Z. LOW IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
GNV AND VQQ AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS VSBYS IN THE 3-5 SM
RANGE. BELIEVE INCREASING WSW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 15-20 KTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVER THE WATERS 10 KTS OR LESS LATE THIS
AFTN WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
EARLY FRI MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WATERS FRI AFTN
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SCEC EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIPS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WX...
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SAT. LOWER DEW PTS
WILL CREATE RHS IN THE 30-35% RANGE ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
SAT AFTN WITH SUSTAINED WNW WINDS 10-15 WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OF 15-20
MPH. THESE CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...EVEN
WITH FORECAST ERCS OF 25 OR BELOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  92  64  88 /  40  50  50  10
SSI  73  89  69  87 /  40  50  50  10
JAX  70  91  67  90 /  50  40  40  20
SGJ  74  88  71  86 /  50  50  40  20
GNV  70  90  68  92 /  50  50  40  20
OCF  71  88  68  93 /  40  50  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ZIBURA/ENYEDI/CHASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-011000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE SLOW
TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH A BREAK FROM
CONVECTION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

ISOLATED STORMS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS
EXPECTED EACH DAY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR
LOCATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JCH/MZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
158 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

FLZ021-022-311845-
COLUMBIA-SUWANNEE-
158 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA AND EASTERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 158 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCALPIN...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LIVE OAK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND MCALPIN...HOUSTON...
WELLBORN...WINFIELD...WATERTOWN...SUWANNEE VALLEY...LAKE CITY AND
FIVE POINTS THROUGH 245 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3034 8280 3033 8279 3033 8277 3032 8275
      3033 8273 3032 8272 3033 8269 3039 8266
      3021 8254 3003 8294 3022 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 241DEG 14KT 3017 8290

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

FLZ022-030-311845-
COLUMBIA-UNION-
209 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA AND WESTERN UNION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 210 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBIA...OR 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND COLUMBIA
THROUGH 245 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2997 8276 2999 8276 2999 8279 3004 8279
      3019 8259 3002 8247 2991 8277 2992 8277
      2993 8280
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 239DEG 16KT 3000 8272

TRABERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
249 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             1 S WELLBORN            30.22N 82.82W
05/31/2012  M0.50 INCH       SUWANNEE           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED SOUTH OF WELLBORN.

&&

AENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

FLZ023>025-GAZ164-311915-
BAKER-CHARLTON-DUVAL-NASSAU-
251 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN
BAKER...SOUTHERN CHARLTON...WESTERN DUVAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 251 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF
MACCLENNY TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF GLEN SAINT MARY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND GLEN
SAINT MARY...MACCLENNY...BALDWIN AND ST. GEORGE THROUGH 315 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3058 8196 3022 8194 3019 8218 3046 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 237DEG 10KT 3039 8215 3022 8214

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
253 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

FLZ031-032-311930-
BRADFORD-CLAY-
253 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN CLAY
AND EASTERN BRADFORD COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 253 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTH OF STARKE...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF RAIFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SAMPSON...HAMPTON...
STARKE...LAWTEY AND KINGSLEY THROUGH 330 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3013 8199 2995 8184 2983 8213 2994 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 233DEG 11KT 2992 8211

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

GAZ152>154-165-166-312000-
BRANTLEY-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-
308 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN
BRANTLEY...NORTHEASTERN CAMDEN AND SOUTHWESTERN GLYNN COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 308 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTH OF WAVERLY...OR 6 MILES
NORTH OF WOODBINE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WAYNESVILLE...WAVERLY...DOVER BLUFF...
DOCK JUNCTION...BRUNSWICK AND COUNTRY CLUB ESTATES THROUGH 400 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3092 8146 3100 8174 3125 8182 3128 8146
      3099 8146 3098 8147 3098 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 264DEG 15KT 3105 8169

ZIBURA