Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
239 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...THRU FRI NIGHT...WITH BERYL MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM
AREA...WE ARE LEFT WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH ENHANCED
CUMULUS ST AUGUSTINE TO MIDDLEBURG TO JUST N OF GAINESVILLE...BEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THIS AREA REMAINDER OF AFTN. ISOLATED
SHRA POSSIBLE EARLY EVNG...OTHERWISE DRY TONIGHT. INCLUDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG NCTRL INTO NE FL WHERE CHANCES APPEAR BEST...ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA WITH
LLVL FLOW OFF GULF OF MEX.

VERY WARM DAY THURS WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING
LOW-MID 90S FOR HIGH TEMPS...COOLER ALONG COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SEA BREEZE INTERSECTION OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...SO SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS
THERE THAN WRN COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SAT THRU WED...WEAK FRONT MOVES ACRS SE GA LATE FRI
NIGHT AND STALLS OVER NE FL SAT. LIMITED LOW POPS TO AREAS ALONG
AND S OF FRONT ON SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SE GA...WITH
TEMPS STILL REACHING 90 MUCH OF NE FL. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
RISE SUN AND MON WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK IN LOW-MID 90S ACROSS
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST. GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH DAILY LOW POPS RETURNING
MON-TUE. POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WED WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR THIS AFTN AND EVENING...UNLESS A SHRA OR
TS IMPACTS A TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z (8 PM) WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE A
GNV AND SSI. TONIGHT SHALLOW SW FLOW SUPPORTS LOW IFR STRATUS
POSSIBILITY AT GNV AND VQQ. HAVE JAX AND CRG DROPPING TO 5SM MVFR
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...SSE FLOW THIS EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL VEER BACK
TO THE SSW TONIGHT WITH MAGNITUDES AROUND 10-15 KTS. SEAS SUBSIDED
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY TO 2-4 FT. SCEC CONDITIONS DUE TO WINDS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS FRI NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WEAK SFC FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TMRW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  94  69  90 /  10  30  20  40
SSI  73  87  73  87 /  10  30  20  30
JAX  69  92  70  90 /  20  30  20  30
SGJ  72  88  73  87 /  20  30  20  30
GNV  70  92  69  91 /  20  30  10  30
OCF  70  93  70  91 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/ENYEDI/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1227 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-311000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL
GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1227 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. A FEW
STRONG STORMS...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...ARE
POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
DAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS...AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/ABE

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