Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
545 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE JAX
METRO AREA AND ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE MAIN THREAT THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG GUST FRONT AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO PUSH THROUGH JAX METRO AREA
TAF SITES THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

JCH

PREVIOUS 340 PM AFD BELOW...

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
(1013 MILLIBARS) OVER COASTAL GEORGIA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. FURTHER NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE (1026 MILLIBARS) IS
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THIS FEATURE IS PUSHING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALOFT...A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CUTTING OFF OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS
CIRCULATION INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PER THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT TALLAHASSEE...DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS FILTERED INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...MINUS 14 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 500 MILLIBARS ON THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...ARE RESULTING IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTION OF OUR AREA. DIME TO MARBLE SIZED
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN STORMS OVER WAYNE AND APPLING COUNTIES...AND THIS ACTIVITY
IS PRESSING INTO THE COASTAL GEORGIA COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL FLORIDA COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS PLENTY OF MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES POTENTIALLY INTERSECT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT
PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE AIR ARE IN PLACE. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW MID-MAY
CLIMATOLOGY...OR IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH MID-60S ELSEWHERE.

TROUGHING ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL SERVE TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES
QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE...THE WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH WILL PRESS
SOUTHWARD...AND OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THIS COMPLICATED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. DESPITE PLENTY OF MORNING
SUNSHINE...SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COAST...AND MID-80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...EXPECT
BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART OUR REGION. WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT PERSISTING...WE WILL KEEP SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SATURDAY AREA WIDE...DIMINISHING SOME ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS NUDGES SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL. WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WILL USE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS OUR FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR NEAR TSRA. HAVE TSRA AT SSI WHERE
STORMS ARE APPROACHING ATTM. WILL AMEND FLORIDA TERMINALS TO
REMOVE TEMPO SINCE MOST OF ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN QUIET INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SCEC
CONDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK MAY DEVELOP
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  82  63  85 /  30  30  30  30
SSI  67  77  69  78 /  60  30  30  30
JAX  65  82  64  82 /  60  40  40  30
SGJ  67  80  70  79 /  60  40  40  40
GNV  62  85  64  86 /  40  40  40  40
OCF  64  87  65  87 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

NELSON/TRABERT/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1158 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-180845-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1158 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA COUNTIES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FIRE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
MID AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. STORM MOTION
WILL BE EAST AROUND 10 MPH WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.

FOR BOATERS...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BE AWARE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS AND HAIL.

A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING UP
COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
557 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             ST. MARYS               30.71N 81.54W
05/17/2012  E0.25 INCH       CAMDEN             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE AMOUNT OF PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR RIVERFRONT.

&&

MM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
613 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

FLZ024-025-032-172245-
CLAY-DUVAL-NASSAU-
613 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
CLAY...CENTRAL DUVAL AND SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...
SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 613 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...TALLYRAND...NORMANDY...RIVERSIDE...DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...
SAN MARCO...ORANGE PARK...MANDARIN...LAKESIDE AND JACKSONVILLE
HEIGHTS THROUGH 645 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3014 8152 3012 8159 3013 8160 3012 8168
      3010 8168 3007 8179 3045 8189 3050 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 343DEG 14KT 3038 8176

HESS