Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
238 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
GREATER INSTABILITY TODAY HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO FIRE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SOME OF STORMS ARE ALREADY EXHIBITING SEVERE
POTENTIAL. STORMS ARE ALIGNED WITH A THETA-E RIDGE FROM ALACHUA TO
DUVAL AND CAMDEN COUNTIES. SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THIS AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD ROTATE
EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ALONG
EASTERN ZONES OF NE FL PAST 8 PM. PATCHY FOG IS PSBL AGAIN TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR SHOWS CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ADVECTING
TOWARD FL AND NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT ACRS SE GA. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS TEXAS WILL DE-AMPLIFY
AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
AMPLE MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...POSITIONED WEST OF OUR REGION ALONG WITH ACTIVE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS SEA BREEZES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. AN INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN AND SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND MID 80S ALONG
THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALBEIT WITH A
FEW CHANGES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING SWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FROM NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE
ERN GULF COAST. CYCLOGENESIS NOW APPEARS WELL EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS. THUS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY AND NE TO
EAST WINDS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE. MODELS VARY AS TO WHETHER A MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW FORMS
NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. IF IT DOES...THEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LIKELY
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS FOR NOW AND
ADJUST AS THE SCENARIO UNFOLDS. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES
MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH LESS DIURNAL
VARIATION NEAR THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND HAVE
VCTS UNTIL APPROX 02Z. HAVE TIMED TEMP0 FOR TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTN ACCORDING TO WHEN EXPECTED AT EACH TERMINAL. HAVE MVFR
IN FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH EXCEPTIONN OF SSI.

&&

.MARINE...
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH A DEVELOPING NE FLOW AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  86  62  88 /  50  40  40  50
SSI  69  83  69  81 /  40  40  40  40
JAX  65  87  65  86 /  50  50  50  50
SGJ  68  83  68  82 /  50  60  50  50
GNV  65  87  63  87 /  40  70  50  60
OCF  66  87  65  87 /  40  70  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/ENYEDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-161000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
839 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WITH MOST ACTIVITY
OCCURRING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORM
MOTION WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TO JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE BY
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS/ABE/MKT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
347 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLZ023-030-031-152015-
BAKER-BRADFORD-UNION-
347 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
BRADFORD...SOUTHEASTERN BAKER AND NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

AT 347 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAIFORD...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
RAIFORD...JOHNSTOWN...ELLERBEE AND LAWTEY THROUGH 415 PM EDT. HAIL UP
TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3000 8232 3017 8235 3024 8205 3002 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 260DEG 19KT 3010 8223

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLZ024-152015-
NASSAU-
348 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN NASSAU
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 348 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES WEST OF HILLIARD...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
HILLIARD THROUGH 415 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3065 8162 3057 8201 3065 8205 3075 8204
      3082 8189 3078 8184 3079 8181 3076 8178
      3077 8176 3075 8173 3074 8167 3075 8168
      3075 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 251DEG 13KT 3067 8198

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
350 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLZ033-038-152015-
FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS-
350 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ST. JOHNS AND NORTHEASTERN FLAGLER COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 351 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTH OF CRESCENT BEACH...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND CRESCENT BEACH AND MARINELAND THROUGH 415 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. IF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2965 8135 2980 8126 2979 8125 2955 8115
      2954 8114 2953 8115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 300DEG 15KT 2969 8121

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLZ023-GAZ150-164-152030-
BAKER-CHARLTON-WARE-
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WARE...EXTREME NORTHERN BAKER AND CENTRAL CHARLTON COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 355 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER CHARLTON COUNTY...OR 15 MILES WEST OF
HILLIARD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3055 8223 3078 8228 3085 8206 3071 8203
      3065 8205 3060 8201 3056 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 250DEG 15KT 3067 8215

STRUBLE

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