Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
258 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NORTH GA AND HAS A TRAILING
TROUGH/FRONT SWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND NE GULF OF MEXICO. AS
HEATING OF LOW LEVELS INCREASED AND SEA BREEZES BEGAN PUSHING
INLAND...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
AND ARE MOVING NEWD OVER THE AREA.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH A MULTITUDE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR
PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND ALS AREAS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CNTRL FL AND ALSO SRN GA. STRONGEST
IMPULSES SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THUS STRONGEST STORMS
WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES IN SE
GA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST THIS EVNG AND DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLGT CHANCE (<20%) OF RAIN LATE
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA WHERE SKIES WILL TEND TO CLEAR MORE IN THE
LATE EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MEAN LAYER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD
SWWD INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TREK FROM N GA
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MID WEEK. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH SCTD/NUM SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN OFF THE GULF ALONG
AND EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE EACH AFTN
AND EVENING AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AS SW TO WLY FLOW KEEPS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST... AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER DEVELOP. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK TO THE ERN U.S. THU/FRI PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. A CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE CAROLINAS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND MODELS HINT THAT THE LOW
WILL MEANDER IN CIRCLES THROUGH THE WEEKNED...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
GFS IS NOT AS KEEN ON THIS AS PREV RUNS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL FORM ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND OUR LOCAL WATERS
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDS WITH NELY FLOW
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL BASICALLY KEEP TEMPS AND POPS AS
IS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR CLIMO THU/FRI THEN FALL A
FEW DEGREES WITH THE BREEZY NELY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE TEMPO TS FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTN/EVENING AND GNV
UNTIL 22Z. LOW CIGS MOVIING IN FROM THE GULF ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE REPORTING SOUTH TO SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT. EAST SWELLS
DOMINATE THE SEAS WHICH ARE RUNNING 3-5 FT. SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TUE AND VEER TO SW WED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THU SHIFTING WINDS TO NW. WINDS/SEAS
INCREASE FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  86  64  87 /  50  30  30  40
SSI  70  82  69  83 /  40  40  40  40
JAX  67  85  65  86 /  50  50  50  60
SGJ  69  82  67  84 /  40  50  50  50
GNV  66  85  65  87 /  50  50  40  40
OCF  67  85  65  88 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/ENYEDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1234 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-
149>154-162>166-151000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1234 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN TRAINING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET. A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INLAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI

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