Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

.NEAR TERM...

ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE NMRS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS OVER INLAND
SE GA BY 21Z-00Z AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWN BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
MOVES THROUGH SE GA. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID 80S OVER A SIZABLE PORTION
OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN BY THE DEEPER MIXING
AS NOTED BY SOME DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN OVER A FEW
NE FL ZONES. RECORD HIGH TEMP POSSIBLE AT ALMA WHERE CURRENT
RECORD STANDS AT 85 DEG (FROM 2011). AN ISOLD STRONG STORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT BASED ON INSTABILITY OF 1500-2000J/KG...THROUGH
ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ALTHOUGH MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THE
ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
SOME CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
ADDITION TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL ACT TO INCREASE
CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA WHERE THE
BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE FOCUSED.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...CONTINUING TO INSPIRE CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
DRIER...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT WITH ONSHORE FLOW COULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE DOWN
THE EAST COAST TOWARD THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BRING A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY
STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCT-BKN CU NEAR 4-6 KFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN WITH LOCAL
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIG IN SHOWER OR POSSIBLE TSRA. DUE TO GENERALLY
RAIN CHANCE PROBS OF LESS THAN 50% AT TAF SITES...HAVE USED ONLY
VCTS OR TEMPO GROUP. TAF WILL LIKELY NEED REFINING IF A HIGHER COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOP. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFTER 01Z...
THOUGH SOME HIGHER CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER SE GA WHERE WILL CARRY VCSH
LATE INTO THE NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT GNV EARLY
SAT MORNING. AS FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY MIDDAY SAT...WENT WITH
VCSH AND CB MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

SLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT TONIGHT BUT MAY BE JUST BELOW SCEC
CRITERIA FOR WINDS. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SWLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT
WITH HEADLINES POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN MAINLY DUE TO WIND AS SWLY
WINDS INCREASE. WINDS SHIFT TO WLY AND NW SUN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
STILL AROUND 15-20 KT AT TIMES. MORE NLY FLOW ON MON AND THEN NE TUE BELOW
20 KT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR TODAY CONTS WITH ELY SWELLS OF
ABOUT 3 FT PER LATEST BUOY REPORT AND PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS.
ATTM...LOW RISK FOR SAT BUT SOME SWELL ACTION AND DECENT SURF
STILL POSSIBLE FOR AREA BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  82  56  79 /  40  60  50  20
SSI  63  77  60  75 /  40  60  60  30
JAX  62  83  59  81 /  40  60  60  30
SGJ  66  81  63  78 /  30  60  50  30
GNV  61  83  60  80 /  30  50  50  20
OCF  61  85  61  83 /  30  40  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

STRUBLE/SHASHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-240930-
ALACHUA-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-APPLING-
ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN (COASTAL)-
CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT TO 20 NM-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
GLYNN (COASTAL)-GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-
PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
933 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO
THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO ONSHORE
WINDS AND EASTERLY SWELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE...WITH HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
530 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

FLZ036-037-040-232215-
ALACHUA-MARION-PUTNAM-
530 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ALACHUA...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM AND NORTHERN
MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 530 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT MCCOY...
STATIONARY. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
FORT MCCOY THROUGH 615 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2949 8192 2935 8186 2935 8208 2947 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 248DEG 2KT 2942 8200

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
540 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

GAZ135-232230-
APPLING-
540 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
APPLING COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 540 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PLANT HATCH...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS JUST EAST OF PLANT HATCH THROUGH 630 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3194 8233 3194 8228 3191 8222 3191 8213
      3189 8212 3190 8212 3190 8211 3186 8210
      3179 8229 3194 8240 3195 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 238DEG 10KT 3191 8225

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
549 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

FLZ032-037-232230-
CLAY-PUTNAM-
549 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
CLAY AND NORTHERN PUTNAM COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
VALID UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 549 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 10 MILES SOUTH OF PENNEY FARMS...OR 15
MILES NORTHEAST OF MELROSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PENNEY FARMS AND BOSTWICK
THROUGH 630 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3005 8173 2978 8161 2972 8185 2986 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 233DEG 6KT 2984 8183

PETERSON