Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
202 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ENTERING SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER
FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTN...CROSSING NORTHERN FLORIDA
THIS EVENING...EXITING OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THINKING THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA CLOSER TO THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WILL USE GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL FOR THE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH NUMEROUS
POPS FOR SE GA/EXTREME NE FL...AND SCATTERED POPS FURTHER SOUTH.
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THURSDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL PREVAIL TNGT...WITH COOLER
LOWER/MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
PRECIP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GULF...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF FLORIDA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED...SO CONTINUED WITH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF AREA
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...MOST OF IT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
REDUCED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR STORMS...AS WELL AS
IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT VQQ/GNV.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/WAVES BELOW CRITERIA INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO SCEC LATE TNGT/THURSDAY OFFSHORE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
BUILDS NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRES RIDGE REESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE
AREA FOR INCREASING WINDS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER
AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH BEHIND THIS FRONT. WHILE MIN RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WINDS...ERC AND DISPERSIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER
RH VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  83  53  84 /  50   0   0   0
SSI  66  79  63  79 /  60   0   0   0
JAX  64  82  58  83 /  60  10   0   0
SGJ  67  80  65  79 /  50  10   0  10
GNV  65  85  56  85 /  40  10   0   0
OCF  67  86  59  87 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/STRUBLE/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1225 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-101000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
1225 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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