Special Marine Warning 113, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
352 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS AREA WIDE TODAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

SHORT TERM (SUN-TUE)...

TODAY...SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE WNW TO ACROSS THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE BY LATE IN THE DAY. WET DAY IN STORE AS SURGE
OF MOISTURE EAST OF THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL BEGIN WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
LATE IN THE DAY (00Z). WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL
AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE LOWER DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PCP WITH AREAS
NEAR THE EAST COAST REMAINING IN THE 80S. HAVE GONE WITH QPF AMOUNTS
OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
OVER 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH PW (2+ INCHES).

TONIGHT...AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE...PRECIP SHOULD WANE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS DURING THE
EVE. HOWEVER...GFS SHOWING ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS COMING IN FROM
ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IMMEDIATE. COULD ALSO BE LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARDS
THE GULF COAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE
TYPICAL SEABREEZE DOMINATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH THE
TROUGH WELL WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH CNTL GULF COAST. WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND SE FLOW...WILL GO
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE COAST DURING MORNING
SPREADING INLAND AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL WANE DURING THE EVE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. GFS SHOWING ANOTHER BAND COMING IN FROM ATLANTIC...BUT WITH
MEAN FLOW (1000-500 MB) OUT OF THE SOUTH...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT MAY MOVE OFFSHORE THE COAST SOUTH OF ST
AUGUSTINE.

TUESDAY...MEAN FLOW (1000-500 MB) WILL BE SOUTH AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
GFS SHOWING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WHEREAS THE NAM
IS SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH PW LESS THAN 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORMS WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES (50%) ACROSS
THE INLAND AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN GETS SHUNTED SOUTH NEXT
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL SEE A MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTH FLOW WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. CLIMO TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS WITH TEMPO IFR IN BANDS
OF PRECIP EXPECTED AT SSI...CRG...JAX AND VQQ THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
BEST CHANCES OF TS WILL BE AT GNV THIS AFTN AND HAVE INCLUDED TS AND
CB THERE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL LEGS EARLY TODAY WITH SI.Y
FOR THE NEARSHORE LEGS STILL ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AROUND 10 AM...THEN
EXTENDED THE SC.Y FOR OFFSHORE LEGS THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS SINCE
SEAS ROSE TONIGHT TO 8-9 FT AT BUOY 41012. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT BELOW 15 KTS...WITH PREVAILING SSE FLOW 15 KTS OR LESS
EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BUILDS OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW AND ELEVATED SWELLS. EARLY THIS MORNING BUOY 41012 REPORTED
SWELLS OF 2-3 FT AND 17 SECOND PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  73  93  72 /  60  30  60  50
SSI  87  78  87  77 /  70  30  50  40
JAX  88  74  90  74 /  70  30  50  40
SGJ  86  77  88  76 /  70  30  50  40
GNV  90  73  92  73 /  60  40  60  40
OCF  90  74  92  73 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

PP/ABE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

FLZ025-033-050830-
DUVAL-ST. JOHNS-
343 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ST.
JOHNS AND EASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS
VALID UNTIL 430 AM EDT...

AT 342 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTH OF FORT
CAROLINE TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAWGRASS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20
MPH. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITHIN THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND TALBOT ISLAND...SAWGRASS...PONTE VEDRA
BEACH...NEPTUNE BEACH...MAYPORT...LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND...
JACKSONVILLE BEACH... SAN PABLO...PALM VALLEY AND FORT CAROLINE
THROUGH 430 AM EDT. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN
THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3007 8143 3046 8170 3054 8155 3052 8154
      3055 8152 3056 8152 3057 8150 3053 8148
      3049 8141 3023 8137 3010 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0742Z 147DEG 11KT 3042 8151 3014 8135

ENYEDI