Small Craft Advisory for Winds 7, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO TREK EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE INITIAL EDGE OF THIS PRECIP ABOUT TO
MOVE ONSHORE THE WESTERN PENINSULA. IN ADVANCE OF THIS...AN
IMPULSE COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY/SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NE FL MOVING INTO SE GA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NUDGE NORTH
THIS AFTN WITH ACTIVITY FILLING IN AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
INLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHIELD HAS HAD SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SO WILL INCLUDE GUSTY
WIND/SMALL HAIL WORDING LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SOUTH
TO NORTH. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME DRY SLOTTING WORKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE FL LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
PREFRONTAL PRECIP ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. WILL LOWER WIDESPREAD POPS
SOMEWHAT LATE THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
1-2 INCHES ACROSS NE FL...WITH ONE THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH ACROSS SE GA.

THE UPPER LOW EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY...WITH THE
SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING SE GA SUNDAY MORNING...AND EXITING
NE FL SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS EARLY WILL DECREASE TO CHANCE
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY AFTN. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TNGT WITH
THICK CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIRMASS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORING CLEAR AND COOL NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL...WITH READINGS INLAND
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK WITH RETURN FLOW ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS
FLORIDA TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SKIES CLEARING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SCEC TONIGHT ON THE OUTER LEG...WITH A BRIEF DECREASE
EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR WINDS ON THE OUTER LEGS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEARSHORE MAY VERY WELL REACH SCA AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH...SO WILL NOT ISSUE THERE FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW RISK SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  78  47  72 /  60  40  10   0
SSI  66  75  52  72 /  70  50  10   0
JAX  63  80  51  74 /  80  50  10   0
SGJ  65  76  55  72 /  80  60  10   0
GNV  64  79  48  74 /  80  50  10   0
OCF  65  81  52  74 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

ALLEN/SHULER/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1225 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-221000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1225 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING FLORIDA
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH ONE QUARTER
TO ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE AREA BEACHES. REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ON MONDAY....NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO
35 MPH POSSIBLE AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS EXPECTED.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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