Lake Wind Advisory 36, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER NE FL THROUGH MONDAY...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EXTREME SW ZONES THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.CURRENTLY...BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NWD OVER OUR ZONES BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS INTO THE
EVENING ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WRN ZONES WHERE PERSISTENT BAND IS
LOCATED AND ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THERE
THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. T.S. DEBBY CONTS TO DRIFT NWD AND SPREAD
COPIOUS MOISTURE NWD OVER THE FL PENINSULA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD
DOWN BY PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCT EMBEDDED TSTMS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING LESS LATE. BEST LIFT WILL TRANSLATE
NEWD THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RAIN SHIELD PROBABLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
BTN 09Z AND 12Z. AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS...1-2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STRONGER SLY FLOW JUST
ABOVE SFC AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE ROTATING CELLS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXTREME SW ZONES AND SPC HAS INDICATED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MARION COUNTY NW TO
GILCHRIST COUNTY. ANOTHER THREAT AREA MAY BE NE FL AND SE GA COASTS
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY THE INSTABILITY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. MIN TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY-SATURDAY)...THE OFFICIAL TRACK OF TROPICAL
STORM DEBBIE BY THE NHC MOVES IT WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
STRENGTHENS IT TO A HURRICANE BY 12Z WED. MAIN ISSUE IN FCST IS QPF
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NCEP 12Z QPF
WHICH SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOWARDS
I-75 AND GULF COAST REGION. HPC'S 5 DAY TOTAL PCP SHOWS GENERALLY 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS SE GA AND 2 TO 5 INCHES  ACROSS NE FL...HIGHEST
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER A TRACK FURTHER EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...WOULD
GREATLY INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. FOR
WED-FRI...ASSUMING DEBBIE MOVES WEST...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL
GO WITH HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COINCIDING
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE PREVIOUS FCST OF GOING WITH HIGHER POPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
MAX TEMPS THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE MEX. WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TREND TO DECREASE POPS AND INCREASE MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND AS A
WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE FL
PENINSULA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR IS FORECAST WITH LOW VSBY AND CIGS OF
1-3 KFT WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER CELLS THAT DEVELOP.
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SPEEDS NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KNOTS
AROUND 5000 FT BY 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A LONG FETCH OF S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK
AS THE REGION SITS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...AND TS DEBBY OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SCEC OFFSHORE TODAY...PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH
15 KNOTS NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH A
PERIOD OF SCA SEAS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY. HIGH RISK POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  92  75  88 /  80  60  30  40
SSI  76  87  75  84 /  80  60  50  40
JAX  73  89  76  85 /  90  60  60  50
SGJ  76  87  75  85 /  90  70  60  50
GNV  74  87  74  88 / 100  60  60  60
OCF  73  87  76  88 / 100  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

SHASHY/PETERSON/CHASE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
334 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND GST     JACKSONVILLE BEACH      30.28N 81.39W
06/24/2012  M46 MPH          DUVAL              FL   MESONET

            A MESONET SITE AT THE JAX BEACH PIER MEASURED A
            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST TO 46 MPH FROM THE SOUTH.
            SUSTAINED SPEED OF 30 MPH.

&&

AENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
336 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLZ024-025-242015-
DUVAL-NASSAU-
336 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
DUVAL AND EXTREME EASTERN NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAYPORT...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND MAYPORT...LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND AND TALBOT ISLAND THROUGH 415
PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3033 8143 3033 8147 3053 8149 3053 8142
      3052 8142 3051 8144 3049 8141 3041 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 182DEG 13KT 3038 8144

PETERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
346 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND GST     MAYPORT                 30.38N 81.41W
06/24/2012  M44 MPH          DUVAL              FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            NAS MAYPORT MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 44 MPH.

&&

AENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
455 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TRENTON                 29.61N 82.82W
06/24/2012  M3.25 INCH       GILCHRIST          FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            THE FORESTRY SERVICE HAS RECORDED 3.25 INCHES OF RAIN SO
            FAR TODAY.

&&

PP