Lake Wind Advisory 32, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FIRING UP ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN GA INTO NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. WILL USE NUMEROUS TSTMS GENERALLY SW OF JAX...WITH SCATTERED
POPS INTO SE GA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN STORM TRENDS AND
SLOW MOVEMENT...WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL
WORDING FOR THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SOME INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
HEATING IS LOST AND THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH.
CONVECTION WILL BE LESSER IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTN AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL USE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
POPS FRIDAY AFTN MAINLY SOUTH OF GNV. EXPECT BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY
NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FAR NE
FL AND SE GA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NNE OF THE AREA AND TROUGHING TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST. A LOW CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL TRANSLATE INLAND DURING THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY SILENT 10% POPS ADVERTISED...ALTHO AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF AN ISOLD AFTN/EVENING STORM WILL EXIST NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY
TUE AFTN. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 TOWARD THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND OVER INLAND SE GA.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S INLAND WHERE DRIER AIR WILL
RESIDE...TO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SAT MAY BRING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN FOR SUSTAINED NEAR 20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX INTO SUN AND MON
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS 15-20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE AT GNV DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE TERMINAL. HAVE PREVAILING MVFR THERE...WITH TEMPO
MVFR DUE TO BKN CIGS AT VQQ...JAX AND CRG WHERE A SHOWER MAY NEAR
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE VERY
LOW. OVERNIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT
FOG AT BAY BUT LOW MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT A FEW SITES LATE TONIGHT.
FRI LOW PRECIP CHANCES BUT BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH...EXITING TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...TO SCEC OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SCEC CONDITIONS NEARSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH WINDS
BECOMING NE AND INCREASING. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RISK
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  88  63  87 /  30  10  10   0
SSI  73  83  71  83 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  67  85  66  85 /  30  10  10  10
SGJ  73  84  73  84 /  30  20  20  20
GNV  68  88  65  87 /  60  20  20  10
OCF  69  89  68  89 /  60  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

ALLEN/ENYEDI/CHASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
530 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE U.S. HIGHWAY 441
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM HOMERVILLE TO
GAINESVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. AN ELEVATED RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST AT EAST COAST BEACHES ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MZ/MKT