Heat Advisory 2, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...

...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
FLATTENING A BIT SUNDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO RIDE OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT THINK THIS WILL PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS
WITH NO PRECIP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THIS LEAVES THE FCST CONCERN THE
HEAT. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE CLIMBING INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE
ACROSS NE FL/SE GA...AND WILL LIKELY CLIP WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF SE GA. THUS...WILL KEEP CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM. ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA. WILL ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE GA SUNDAY AFTN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THIS WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD HELP
MINIMIZE CONVECTION. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THIS HIGH BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN ALLOWING UPPER TROUGHS TO PIVOT FURTHER SOUTH...HELPING
TO STRENGTHEN SURFACE TROUGH. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM MID WEEK ON.

WITH THE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PATTERN THIS WEEK...ANTICIPATING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN EXPECTED. PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THIS 18Z PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF FOG AT KVQQ/KGNV OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A TROUGH LINGERS
OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCEC.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE ON THE ST MARY'S...SANTA
FE AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  99  76  98 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  79  93  77  97 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  73  98  73  97 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  73  94  74  93 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  70  94  72  93 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  69  94  72  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-HAMILTON-NASSAU-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-INLAND GLYNN-
     JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR APPLING-BACON-BRANTLEY-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-
     INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WAYNE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLTON-CLINCH-
     COASTAL CAMDEN-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN.

AM...NONE.

&&

ALLEN/STRUBLE/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
700 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-010830-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
700 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE ST. MARYS RIVER...SUWANNEE RIVER AND
SANTA FE RIVER...

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...

...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
SUNDAY...

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG THE ALONG THE ST. MARYS
RIVER IN PORTIONS OF BAKER...NASSAU...CAMDEN...AND CHARLTON COUNTIES.

MAJOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE SUWANNEE RIVER IN
PORTIONS OF COLUMBIA AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE SANTA FE RIVERS IN PORTIONS OF
ALACHUA...BRADFORD...COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...SUWANNEE...AND UNION
COUNTIES.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 108 TO 116 THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9
PM IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MIDDLE 90S TO 102 WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 108 TO 115 DEGREES. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE REQUIRED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.