Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS AS OF LATE
AFTERNOON AND THIS MAKES CONFIDENCE IN REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL A LITTLE SHAKY FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONVINCING IN THE STORM REDEVELOPMENT
SCENARIO AS STRONGER LIFT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALL CENTER (500 MB
> 80M) AND ACCESS TO 330K+ THETAE.

WE ARE FOLLOWING THE COURSE AND CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE ARKLAMISS
AFTER 900 PM. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ABOUT WHEN
EXACTLY STORMS WILL RE- INITIATE IN OUR AREA...AND IT COULD BE LATER
GIVEN STRONGER STABILIZATION FROM THE CURRENT RAIN SHIELD. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR IS ACTUALLY LESS EMPHATIC WITH
DEVELOPMENT...SO THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT REDEVELOPMENT WILL NOT
OCCUR AT ALL. IF THE 12Z GFS PANS OUT...WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF MIXED
LAYER CAPE ~500 J/KG AND BACKING LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS WITH
CONTINUED STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS AND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS.

DEPENDING ON REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE A CLOSE MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
STILL AVAILABLE AND WITH A CONTINUED SET-UP FOR TRAINING OF
STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TSTMS COULD LINGER MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT/DRY LINE CAN PASS THROUGH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY
WEATHER REGIME TO TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUE BRINGING
BACK RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED AS A RESULT/ESPECIALLY WED WHERE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WILL COME IN SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
DEC. THE WARMTH WILL NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS A POTENT COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION STARTING EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER WAVE ASSOC WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WED EVENING INDUCING A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THAT WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MO
AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OFFERED BY THE
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AND AT FIRST GLANCE IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE ARKLAMISS WOULD BE A SLAM
DUNK. HOWEVER THE DETAILS OFFER A DIFFERENT STORY...AT LEAST FOR
NOW. WHILE ROBUST WIND FIELDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DRAW UP AMPLE
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/DEW POINTS CLIMBING NEAR OR ABOVE 65 DEG FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA AND PW VALUES RISING ABOVE 1.5 IN/
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM(H5 TEMPS -10 TO -11) WHICH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
MODELS TREND COOLER ALOFT BECAUSE IF THEY DO...AND THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT DECENT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LATE WED INTO THU MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL OMIT MENTION OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THU.
STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THU AND ITS
FEASIBLE A WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST THE
DELTA...IF NOT AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRANSIT THE DEEP SOUTH FRI INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BK/

&&

.AVIATION...

CEILINGS SHOULD RAIN IN MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...THEN TURN SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY MORNING.
THE RAINS AND CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...THUS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  71  38  70 /  70  17   6   0
MERIDIAN      58  74  37  68 /  83  22   7   0
VICKSBURG     57  69  35  71 /  50  11   5   0
HATTIESBURG   62  74  41  70 /  91  31   7   0
NATCHEZ       60  67  38  69 /  69  11   5   0
GREENVILLE    56  64  41  69 /  27   9   4   0
GREENWOOD     55  69  38  70 /  44  11   5   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/BK/17/

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