Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS AS OF LATE
AFTERNOON AND THIS MAKES CONFIDENCE IN REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL A LITTLE SHAKY FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONVINCING IN THE STORM REDEVELOPMENT
SCENARIO AS STRONGER LIFT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALL CENTER (500 MB
> 80M) AND ACCESS TO 330K+ THETAE.

WE ARE FOLLOWING THE COURSE AND CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE ARKLAMISS
AFTER 900 PM. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ABOUT WHEN
EXACTLY STORMS WILL RE- INITIATE IN OUR AREA...AND IT COULD BE LATER
GIVEN STRONGER STABILIZATION FROM THE CURRENT RAIN SHIELD. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR IS ACTUALLY LESS EMPHATIC WITH
DEVELOPMENT...SO THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT REDEVELOPMENT WILL NOT
OCCUR AT ALL. IF THE 12Z GFS PANS OUT...WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF MIXED
LAYER CAPE ~500 J/KG AND BACKING LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS WITH
CONTINUED STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS AND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS.

DEPENDING ON REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE A CLOSE MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
STILL AVAILABLE AND WITH A CONTINUED SET-UP FOR TRAINING OF
STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TSTMS COULD LINGER MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT/DRY LINE CAN PASS THROUGH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY
WEATHER REGIME TO TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUE BRINGING
BACK RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED AS A RESULT/ESPECIALLY WED WHERE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WILL COME IN SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
DEC. THE WARMTH WILL NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS A POTENT COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION STARTING EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER WAVE ASSOC WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WED EVENING INDUCING A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THAT WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MO
AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OFFERED BY THE
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AND AT FIRST GLANCE IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE ARKLAMISS WOULD BE A SLAM
DUNK. HOWEVER THE DETAILS OFFER A DIFFERENT STORY...AT LEAST FOR
NOW. WHILE ROBUST WIND FIELDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DRAW UP AMPLE
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/DEW POINTS CLIMBING NEAR OR ABOVE 65 DEG FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA AND PW VALUES RISING ABOVE 1.5 IN/
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM(H5 TEMPS -10 TO -11) WHICH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
MODELS TREND COOLER ALOFT BECAUSE IF THEY DO...AND THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT DECENT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LATE WED INTO THU MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL OMIT MENTION OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THU.
STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THU AND ITS
FEASIBLE A WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST THE
DELTA...IF NOT AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRANSIT THE DEEP SOUTH FRI INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BK/

&&

.AVIATION...

CEILINGS SHOULD RAIN IN MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...THEN TURN SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY MORNING.
THE RAINS AND CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...THUS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  71  38  70 /  70  17   6   0
MERIDIAN      58  74  37  68 /  83  22   7   0
VICKSBURG     57  69  35  71 /  50  11   5   0
HATTIESBURG   62  74  41  70 /  91  31   7   0
NATCHEZ       60  67  38  69 /  69  11   5   0
GREENVILLE    56  64  41  69 /  27   9   4   0
GREENWOOD     55  69  38  70 /  44  11   5   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/BK/17/

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MSZ051-055>058-063>066-072>074-162120-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-NEWTON MS-MARION MS-LAWRENCE MS-LAMAR MS-JONES MS-
JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-JASPER MS-FORREST MS-COVINGTON MS-CLARKE MS-
219 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
219 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

A LINE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 30 TO 40 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES WEST OF ORANGE TO 5 MILES WEST OF
KOKOMO AT 218 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EXTRA TIME AND BE ALERT FOR BLINDING WIND-DRIVEN RAIN.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN WEST CENTRAL CLARKE...COVINGTON...NORTHWESTERN FORREST...
JASPER...JEFFERSON DAVIS...JONES...LAMAR...SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...
MARION...EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON AND
SOUTHERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3098 8935 3100 8935 3100 8942 3109 8994
      3112 8995 3113 9001 3124 9005 3132 9005
      3135 9011 3177 8987 3224 8903 3215 8880
      3143 8910 3143 8914 3136 8913 3097 8930
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 286DEG 30KT 3208 8895 3162 8927
          3154 8988 3120 9007

MRM

MSZ025>028-035>037-042-043-162330-
ATTALA MS-MONTGOMERY MS-MADISON MS-LEFLORE MS-HUMPHREYS MS-HOLMES MS-
GRENADA MS-CARROLL MS-YAZOO MS-
433 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
433 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST
WEST OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN. THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY LAST 15
TO 30 MINUTES.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN YAZOO...CARROLL...SOUTHERN GRENADA...HOLMES...EASTERN
HUMPHREYS...EASTERN LEFLORE...NORTHERN MADISON...MONTGOMERY AND
WESTERN ATTALA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE WINDS.

LAT...LON 3346 8950 3346 8944 3299 8951 3294 8975
      3268 8992 3256 9036 3267 9067 3373 9022
      3373 9014 3377 9015 3376 9020 3378 9019
      3379 8950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 253DEG 50KT 3375 8965 3286 9031

CME