Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
932 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.UPDATE...THE SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTION IS PUSHING SWD ACROSS NERN
MS THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING THE HIGH CAPE/SHEAR VALUES THAT PERSIST ACROSS NERN MS.
THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CANCELLED WRN PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH
DUE TO THE SMALLER RISK OF SWD PROPAGATION OF THE WRN STORMS AND THE
FACT THAT THEY WILL NOT REACH OUR WRN WATCH AREA BEFORE IT EXPIRES
AT 11 PM.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TO KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM THIS EVENING AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED OVER MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
MS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA BY EVENING. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ATMOSPHERE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEADING TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AROUND 06Z AS IT DROPS TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL
MS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE...A FEW WEAKER SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE PINE BELT REGION
THIS EVENING BUT THESE WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL DROP SOUTH TO
THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS WEEK WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT
INDICES REACHING 100 TO 105 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
70S.
/SW/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES WILL BE
FURTHER PUSHING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL BE "DIRTY" OVER OUR
REGION. POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE MENTIONED DIRTY
PERIPHERY OVER THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY IS PRETTY GOOD AND THE
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SOUPY WHILE ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES (AND THUS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY) INCREASE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY SHOULD DEFINITELY BE IN GREATEST SUPPLY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE ARKLAMISS...BUT AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL MS WILL
HAVE SOME CHANCE OF STORMS. INSTABILITY COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE RATHER LAX. AT THIS POINT I
PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THESE PERIODS ARE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO
HIGHLIGHT RISK IN THE HWO SINCE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WORK WEEK THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT WILL BE BREAKING DOWN FURTHER WITH A FRONT DROPPING DOWN AND
STALLING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
POTENTIALLY KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A CONSOLIDATED TROUGH DROPPING OUR
DIRECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE REGION. RIGHT NOW THIS
FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT CLEAR SOUTH BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND IS
OUT...BUT THIS IS INDEED A WAYS OUT TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. BUT CONSIDERING THE DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
AND THE RATHER POTENT (FOR SEPTEMBER) SYNOPTIC TROUGH FORECAST TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SPECULATE SOME
VIGOROUS STORMS COULD BE IN STORE AROUND NEXT SATURDAY. IT IS EVEN
POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE SMALLER STORM CLUSTERS ALLUDED TO ABOVE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
DESPITE THE POSSIBILITIES...AT THIS POINT IT IS PROBABLY PRUDENT TO
WAIT AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY TO MENTION IN THE HWO CONSIDERING THURSDAY
IS DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST AND THE CLIMATOLOGY OF SEPTEMBER DOES NOT
GENERALLY FAVOR A GREAT AMOUNT OF SEVERE WEATHER AROUND THESE PARTS.

SO WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW MODELS HANDLE THE TIMING AND LOOK OF THIS
EXPECTED FRONT OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE PLUS I CAN
SEE IF IT COMES IN STRONGLY IS THAT SOME COOL RELIEF WILL BE IN ITS
WAKE....SINCE MOST RESIDENTS OF THE REGION WILL BE ANXIOUS FOR A
COOL DOWN AFTER A RATHER HOT AND VERY HUMID WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES
TUESDAY THROUGH PROBABLY THURSDAY WILL BE PEAKING IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE IN MANY AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON (WITH THE WORST OF THE
HEAT LIKELY IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA). AT THIS POINT THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME POSSIBILITY WE WILL HAVE TO GO WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOME
PORTION OF THE REGION OVER THIS STRETCH.

AS FOR PARTICULARS...MEX TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AND I ONLY
EXERCISED MINOR TWEAKS. ON THE OTHER HAND MEX POPS LOOKS TOO
AGGRESSIVELY WET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND WERE CUT BACK
SOME...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE SUBSIDENT UPPER
RIDGE INFLUENCE. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR STRONG/SVR TSRA OVER N/NE AREAS
THROUGH 07Z WITH OCNL CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR THAT PERIOD. FOR
OTHER AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE VFR...BUT LIKE PREV
MORNINGS...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-15Z. /CME/03

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
227 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-031930-
CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
227 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

A MIX OF STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LAKE VILLAGE ARKANSAS TO PHILADELPHIA MISSISSIPPI
LINE. MOST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 AND 11 PM. THE PRIMARY RISKS
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-55. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...THE AFTERNOON HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
WEST OF I-55.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

INTO MID WEEK...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE AND
SUPPORT HEAT INDICIES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

ARZ074-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>066-072>074-
031930-
ASHLEY-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
227 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-55. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...THE AFTERNOON HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
WEST OF I-55.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

INTO MID WEEK...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE AND
SUPPORT HEAT INDICIES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

CME

MSZ029>031-033-039-030500-
WEBSTER MS-OKTIBBEHA MS-NOXUBEE MS-LOWNDES MS-CLAY MS-
1045 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1045 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE...

A LINE OF OCCASIONALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WAS LOCATED FROM 34 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MONTPELIER TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CALEDONIA AT 1044 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...LOWNDES...NORTHEASTERN NOXUBEE...NORTHERN OKTIBBEHA
AND NORTHEASTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3325 8830 3324 8831 3344 8896 3374 8913
      3376 8894 3382 8893 3382 8873 3380 8871
      3368 8871 3369 8850 3367 8849 3367 8846
      3371 8834 3361 8826
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 317DEG 28KT 3412 8923 3372 8838

BYB

MSZ028>033-039-030725-
WEBSTER MS-OKTIBBEHA MS-NOXUBEE MS-MONTGOMERY MS-LOWNDES MS-CLAY MS-
CHOCTAW MS-
111 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
111 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2012

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PONDING WATER CAN BE EXPECTED. LOCAL FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW...CLAY...LOWNDES...EXTREME EAST
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN NOXUBEE...OKTIBBEHA AND EASTERN WEBSTER
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3302 8833 3301 8833 3321 8882 3328 8882
      3328 8898 3346 8940 3375 8915 3374 8904
      3376 8903 3376 8894 3378 8893 3371 8871
      3368 8871 3369 8864 3357 8826
TIME...MOT...LOC 0608Z 297DEG 21KT 3351 8921

OLB

MSZ038-039-045-046-030830-
WINSTON MS-NOXUBEE MS-NESHOBA MS-KEMPER MS-
233 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
233 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2012

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD
DEKALB AND PHILADELPHIA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS
WAS LOCATED FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF GHOLSON TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF STALLO AT 232 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN KEMPER...EASTERN NESHOBA...SOUTHWESTERN NOXUBEE AND
SOUTHERN WINSTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3266 8837 3265 8838 3261 8898 3304 8931
      3309 8854 3284 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 327DEG 17KT 3301 8859 3297 8914

BYB