Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
457 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION A COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

CURRENTLY A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN DOMINATES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN TWO CORRIDORS
ACROSS THE CWA...ONE OVER EASTERN MS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT
MCV FROM THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER ACROSS NE LOUISIANA AND SE
ARKANSAS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY BEING DRIVEN BY
INSTABILITY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM OKC TO STL...
AND WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURRS...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE OF STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA
LATER ON TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN THE NW. EVEN IF THIS
COMPLEX DOES NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE AREA...NWP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...KEEPING A GENERALLY STORMY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW THEN BEGIN TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...PROVIDING REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GO BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE 12Z GFS
WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE TAKING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER FOR NOW...AND WAS LARGELY DISREGARDED FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST...PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER GIVEN IMPROVED SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FRONT...WE MAY SEE MORE IMPROVED STORM ORGANIZATION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WX BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS AND POPS...WENT ABOVE MAV POP GUIDANCE TOWARD
ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CUT DAYTIME
HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY GIVEN EXPECTATION OF CLOUDS/PRECIP
IN THE AREA. /DL/

LONG TERM(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY LIFTS NWD NEXT WEEK LEAVING A FLATTENING NWLY FLOW REGIME
FOR THE GULF STATES. A 20-40DM HEIGHT FALL AT 500MB PIVOTS THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH OUR CWFA
ON SATURDAY GETS A FINAL PUSH TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
RAIN/STORM CHANCES SUNDAY WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AS DRIER
H7 AIR IS DRIVEN IN ACROSS OUR NRN LOCATIONS.

BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER OUR SRN QUARTER AS FLOW SHOULD
BECOME MORE NWLY INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY AS PWATS DROP TO NEAR ONE INCH
ACROSS NRN AREAS WITH SRN AREAS NEAR 1.5". MOISTURE SHOULD BE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ABOUT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN LIFTS NWD AND THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EDGES NWD IN RESPONSE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 3-4 DAYS COULD EASILY AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES
FOR OUR CWFA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE. POPS STAY GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHIFT TO SRN SECTIONS FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY. POPS RETURN NWD IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK./40/

&&

.AVIATION...A MINOR DISTURBANCE SITTING ON TOP OF THE AREA IS
PROMOTING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MS CURRENTLY...BUT
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED UP NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SOME STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY COULD BE STILL BE LITTLE INTENSE...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
LOTS OF INFLIGHT TURBULENCE.

ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING AND MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY. THIS COULD LEAVE A WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO
FORM BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  92  71  86 /  38  70  43  62
MERIDIAN      70  92  70  87 /  20  74  36  57
VICKSBURG     73  93  71  85 /  39  61  50  70
HATTIESBURG   74  93  73  89 /  20  67  36  62
NATCHEZ       74  92  72  85 /  20  65  30  61
GREENVILLE    73  90  70  85 /  48  53  44  60
GREENWOOD     72  89  69  85 /  49  59  41  56

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/BB/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

LAZ024-026-MSZ053>066-072>074-172100-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
352 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
TWENTY CORRIDOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE MOST INTENSE COULD
CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS WELL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO
THE HEART OF THE ARKLAMISS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH INSTABILITY
LEVELS COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND SHEAR WILL BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND LATE SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE UP TO OR GREATER THAN 3 INCHES. IN A FEW
LOCATIONS THIS COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>052-172100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
352 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. THE MOST INTENSE COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS
WELL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SHOULD WILL DEVELOP GRADUALLY SOUTH INTO THE HEART OF THE ARKLAMISS
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH INSTABILITY LEVELS COMBINED WITH A
BIT OF WIND SHEAR WILL BE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE
TWENTY CORRIDOR...AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE UP TO OR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. IN A FEW
LOCATIONS THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

50

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

MSZ050-051-162305-
SCOTT MS-NEWTON MS-
519 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAWRENCE AT 519
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN NEWTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3223 8931 3233 8947 3248 8935 3228 8892
      3222 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 302DEG 21KT 3235 8932

19

MSZ043-162315-
MADISON MS-
537 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
537 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF CAMERON AT 537 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3264 8974 3276 9004 3283 9001 3284 8999
      3286 8998 3288 8996 3288 8989 3288 8973
      3267 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 284DEG 12KT 3282 8999

AEC