Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WENT CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY WHILE BLENDING THE
NAM MOS INTO HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE FOCUS TO
MOVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
TWEAKED MAV POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE TWEAKING POPS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT UPWARD DUE TO THE CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH. DRIER AIR...PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES..WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER IN THE NORTH TOMORROW EVENING INTO SUNDAY. CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL INCREASE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW THAT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER
THE BASE OF THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL FILTER IN
THE REGION. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANCES PAST SUNDAY NIGHT SO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /DC/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY INTO LATE WEEK...
THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT POSITION AND BECOME MORE ORIENTED OVER
OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LESS PRECIP POTENTIAL EACH
DAY AND TEMPS STEADILY WARMING DURING THE WEEK. GFS GUID TEMPS
INDICATED THIS AND STEADILY WARMED INTO THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS. MOST
OF THIS WAS ACCEPTED WITH JUST A COUPLE SMALL TWEAKS UPWARD AT SELECT
SITES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINLY HAVE A SW COMPONENT AND THIS
SHOULD HELP READINGS FROM GETTING TOO HOT...MID 90S SEEMS TO FIT. AS
FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE GFS STILL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND
INDICATES 30-40% CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVER DONE
AND POPS WERE LOWERED TO THE 20% RANGE (SLGHT CHC). ONE CONCERN FOR
NEXT WEEK (ESP TUE-FRI) WILL BE THE HEAT INDEX. GOING FORECAST SHOWS
A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME.
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IF MID 90S OCCUR AND HUMIDITY HOLDS. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS MOSTLY PREVAIL MINUS BRIEF MVFR AT KHBG. TSRA
HAS DVLPD BTW KHBG AND KMCB WITH TOPS AOA FL500. ADDITIONAL TSRA
COULD DVLP ACRS MS RIVER DELTA THIS AFTN NEAR KGLH AND SHIFT S
THROUGH 21/02Z TOWARDS KTVR/KJAN/KMLU WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDS PSBL.
SFC WINDS OUTSIDE OF TSRA WILL BE WEST AT 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 14
BEFORE BECMG NEAR CALM OVERNGT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS PSBL KGTR/MEI
21/10-13Z WITH LOW STRATUS. VFR CONDS TO RETURN BY 21/15Z ACRS
REGION WITH VCTS ACRS CNTRL/SRN TAF SITES AGAIN SAT AFTN. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  91  73  89 /  35  41  46  50
MERIDIAN      73  90  72  90 /  39  46  50  53
VICKSBURG     75  92  73  89 /  38  36  43  45
HATTIESBURG   73  90  74  90 /  45  69  43  53
NATCHEZ       74  90  73  87 /  37  50  36  53
GREENVILLE    75  93  74  90 /  30  20  28  28
GREENWOOD     73  91  72  90 /  31  24  30  37

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DC/CME/ALLEN

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