Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1104 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012

.UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS WERE ALREADY ACTIVE THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS MOVING
NE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER AND EARLY START TO THE ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND
INSTABILITY TODAY. STILL...BY AFTERNOON A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THEY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AS WELL AS MINOR BRIEF FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONLY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE WERE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER THE MAX TEMPS ACROSS
THE NE FOR TODAY...AND TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. /27/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
FRIDAY WITH WITH NUMEROUS SHRA PRODUCING PERIODS OF IFR REDUCTIONS.
TSRA SHOULD AGAIN BE SCATTERED MAINLY DURING THE 16Z-03Z TIME FRAME
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HOLDS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SERN TX TO
NRN MS. A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES. OVERALL SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SSWLY
6-10KT WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS AT TIMES THEN BECOMING LESS THAN 6KTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIODS. AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY FROM 07-14Z...ESPECIALLY NW OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. /40/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CLOUDY AND WET
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TODAY.
OUR CWA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN A MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOSING FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHEAR/VORT AXIS ORIENTED SW TO NE JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH A 2.25IN
PW AIRMASS AND THE NEARLY DIFFUSE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SE
ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. A WEAK 1013MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY MAY NE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TODAY AS WELL TO
ENHANCE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION. DESPITE THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AS WELL AS MINOR
BRIEF FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.
THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. MOST SITES WILL BE HELP IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE UPPER 80S
MAY BE ACHIEVED. ALTHOUGH LOWER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COME FRIDAY MORNING THE AXIS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL STILL BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER AN AIRMASS WITH PWS ABOVE TWO INCHES. THIS RICH
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA AGAIN. PWS IN EXCESS
OF TWO INCHES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. ANOTHER DAY OF COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. /22/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY SEASONAL WEATHER FOR
MID JULY IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
ARKLAMISS REMAINS PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE EAST. A WEAKNESS IN THE OVERALL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN LOCKED JUST OFF TO OUR WEST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/WESTERN PLAINS HANGS
TOUGH BEFORE WEAKENING. DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL WORK TO KEEP PW VALUES IN RIGHT AROUND 2
INCHES ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MORNING STRATUS PRIOR TO SEASONAL AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME AS RESULT...WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 90S/LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S OFFERED BY THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOK
VERY REASONABLE WITH FEW CHANGES MADE. A LOOK AT NWP VERTICAL
TOTALS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FOR THIS WEEKEND DOES NOT REVEAL
ANYTHING TOO WORRISOME AND WILL KEEP THE HWO CLEAR FOR NOW. A DAILY
CHECK OF MORNING SOUNDINGS WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS/ MICROBURSTS OVER THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS ALL
POINTING TOWARD A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WHICH IN
TURN YIELDS SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS(MID 90S) AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE UKMET/GFS
SUITE HANGING ON TO A WEAK S/WV DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED IF THIS OCCURS...STILL
A LONG WAY OUT. /BK/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MANY COUNTIES/PARISHES AROUND THE ARKLAMISS
REMAIN UNDER BURN BANS. EXPECTED RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
BEGIN TO ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.

THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO HOLD GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. IF WEATHER
CONDITIONS UNFOLD AS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT FIRE DANGER WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED. /19/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  69  90  70 /  92  41  42  40
MERIDIAN      83  68  92  69 /  85  33  45  37
VICKSBURG     83  69  88  69 /  95  42  44  39
HATTIESBURG   88  70  92  72 /  68  27  57  31
NATCHEZ       82  68  86  70 /  77  42  57  32
GREENVILLE    84  70  88  70 /  87  38  39  33
GREENWOOD     83  69  89  70 /  95  41  39  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

27/40/22/BK

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