Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1044 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST...SHOWER/THUNDER
ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I-20 AND ALONG/WEST OF
THE MS RIVER WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDING ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE/PW VALUES IN EXCESS 2 INCHES. LACK OF DRY AIR AND
MEAGER LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP VIGOROUS DMC TO A MINIMUM ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. WEAK FLOW WILL PROMOTE SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND RAIN RATES/FLOOD
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN POSTED...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
/BK/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS
ARKLAMISS DELTA DUE TO H7-H3 WEAKNESS/TROUGHING AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH PWATS >2 IN AND SUFFICIENT MLCAPE IN PRESENCE OF H7-H3
CYCLONIC FLOW...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY
LATE MRNG THROUGH ERLY EVE TODAY. MAIN RISK FROM STRONGEST OF STORMS
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT DURATIONS GIVEN SLOW STORM
MOTIONS. LIMITED INSOLATION COMBINED WITH MEAGER LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL
TOTALS AND HIGH PWATS WILL ACT TO REDUCE THE DMGG MICROBURST AND HAIL
RISK. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO ERLY TUESDAY MRNG BUT AREAS
ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR COULD SEE RAIN/TSTORMS LINGER THROUGH GOOD
PORTION OF NIGHT AS A CONVERGENT BNDRY EDGES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NRN
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS TROUGHING
CONTINUES WITH GREATEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY-82
CORRIDOR IN PROXIMITY TO THE BNDRY MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT OPPOSED TO
TEMP/DEWPOINT GRADIENT. THIS BNDRY WILL STALL NORTH OF REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AS H5-H3 RIDGING TRIES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. POPS
ARE A TOUCH LOWER TUESDAY VS MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR THE UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AREAS. THE H3 RIDGING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER...AS A STRONGER H5-H3 NRN STREAM S/WV TROUGH PIVOTS
TOWARDS THE REGION WED AS THE COOLER/WETTER PATTERN PERSISTS.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...HIGHS WERE DROPPED 1-2 DEGREES TODAY FROM
MAVMOS WITH CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. MIN LOWS WERE
RAISED TO REFLECT 71-74F OVER ADVERTISED UPPER 60S. POPS WERE
INCREASED DURING THE AFTN PERIODS IN SELECT LOCATIONS THAT APPEARED
LOW GIVEN COVERAGE OF PREVIOUS DAYS. /ALLEN/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

OUR CWA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN A MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH A NEARLY DIFFUSE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER THAN NORMAL
HIGHS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. PWS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS HIGH PW AXIS WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER POPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS WEATHER
SCENARIO WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WEAKNESS
OVER OUR REGION WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT WEST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEST OF OUR CWA AND HELPING
MAINTAIN DECENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND END BY MID
EVENING EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW
COLLISIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WELL INTO THE
NIGHT AT TIMES. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
AREA IS PROMOTING HIGH COVERAGE OF MVFR/IFR CATEGORY STRATOCUMULUS...
BUT THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE GENERAL RULE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH CONTINUED HEATING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP AND RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/CATEGORY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS
FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL TODAY. /EC/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MANY COUNTIES/PARISHES AROUND THE ARKLAMISS REMAIN UNDER
BURN BANS AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN RAINFALL FOR THE
PAST MONTH (~50%). HOWEVER...RAINFALL HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE
REGION...AND THE NUMBER OF LOCATIONS RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST HOLDS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. IF WEATHER
CONDITIONS UNFOLD AS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT FIRE DANGER WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  71  89  72 /  56  50  45  42
MERIDIAN      91  71  90  71 /  53  50  38  47
VICKSBURG     89  72  88  71 /  65  52  42  45
HATTIESBURG   91  73  91  73 /  56  24  35  30
NATCHEZ       88  72  87  70 /  61  45  38  30
GREENVILLE    87  72  88  73 /  71  67  66  64
GREENWOOD     88  72  89  72 /  64  63  65  62

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BK/EC

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MSZ049-091830-
RANKIN MS-
102 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
102 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER BRANDON AT 102 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3226 9017 3249 9000 3249 8998 3238 8977
      3215 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 217DEG 20KT 3227 9001

BK