Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
442 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SO FAR HAS BEEN LESS ROBUST THAN INDICATED BY
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER SW MS INTO NE LA AS THE
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD THIS AFTN/EVNG. LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THIS AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT ANTICYCLONIC/
DIVERGENT AND THIS HAS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THERE...BUT LATEST
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS GOING THERE GIVEN PLENTY OF HEATING STILL LEFT IN THE DAY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW FROM SOUTHERN STORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
15 TO 20KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORM GROWTH AND
COULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECT
INTENSITY OF STORMS TO DECREASE WITH SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT
COOLING...BUT STORMS COULD LINGER OR DEVELOP AT ANYTIME DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS/TROUGH IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST (PRECIPITABLE WATER > 2
INCHES) AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR EARLIER
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD...AND THIS WOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE MICROBURST POTENTIAL. GIVEN GREATER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED THOUGH...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
AFTERNOON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. /EC/

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SOME HEAT/DROUGHT RELIEF APPARENT IN
THE LONG TERM WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND MORE CLOUD
COVER...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

INCREASED RAIN/CLOUD PATTERN WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY AS AN INVERTED
SUB-TROPICAL TROUGH PHASES WITH A L/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKENS THE ONCE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WEAKNESS IS DEPICTED WELL ACROSS THE NWP
SUITE WITH NOTABLE H5 TROUGHING STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/EC
AND THEIR HANDLING OF AN BNDRY NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE TUE-FRI
TIMEFRAME. WHILE AIRMASS SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF
THE BNDRY...A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF A BNDRY WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST AS IT
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION TUES/WED. SHOWER/TSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL BE ON THE CHANCE TO LIKELY SIDE /40-70%/ DURING THE AFTNS WITH
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. WITH MLCAPE
/1500-2500 J/KG/...PWATS /1.8-2 IN/...AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS...
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST RISK DURING
AFTNS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
ALSO BUT LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL TOTALS LOOK MARGINAL.

BY THURS...OPS GFS DEPICTS DEEPER H5 TROUGHING OVER MID MS VALLEY
AND BRINGS THE NOW ELEVATED BNDRY THROUGH REGION BY FRI MRNG WHILE
EC IS WEAKER AND HANGS/WASHES IT OUT NORTH OF THE REGION. GFS MEAN
AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES SUPPORT OP GFS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME (WITH
GFSMEN ACTUALLY DEEPER THAN THE OPS GFS). LITTLE SFC DEWPOINT
REFLECTION LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THIS BNDRY PASSAGE BUT DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO FILTER IN H85 AND HIGHER. THIS SHOULD REDUCE (BUT NOT
ELIMINATE) RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK FOR AT
LEAST NRN/CNTRL AREAS. MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS...IN ADDITION TO
INSTABILITY-DRIVEN CU/TCU DURING THE AFTNS...SHOULD KEEP INSOLATION
DOWN. THIS COUPLED WITH 16-19C H85 TEMPS...WILL PROVIDE RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S. IT COULD BE
FORESEEABLE THAT SOME HIGH TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF RAIN/STORMS OCCUR BEFORE BEST
HEATING.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...HIGHS WERE DROPPED BELOW GUIDANCE MOST AFTNS
BY 2-4 DEGREES WITH LOWS RAISED /70F OR GREATER/ UNDER THE CLOUDY
AND MOIST CONDS. POPS CAME IN HIGHER AND ACCEPTED IN MOST CASES WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASES PRIOR TO WED. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY TODAY UNDER INCREASING
CU 4-6K FT. TSRA COVERAGE WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE S OF I-20 THRU THE
AFTN/INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO WANE 23-01Z. MORE ISOLD
SHWR/TSRA ACTIVITY IS XPCTD N OF I-20 BUT COVERAGE MAY PICK UP AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EVENING. TIMING OF THUNDER INTO SPECIFIC AIRFIELDS
REMAINS PROBLEMATIC SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL XPCTD INVOF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A GENERAL DECREASE IN
STORMS WILL UNFOLD LATER THIS EVENING/OVRNGT HOWEVER ISOLD/SCT SHWRS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HEADED INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SFC WINDS TO
REMAIN LGT AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TODAY. /BK/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MANY COUNTIES/PARISHES AROUND THE ARKLAMISS REMAIN UNDER BURN BANS
AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN RAINFALL FOR THE PAST
MONTH. HOWEVER...AREAS OF RAINFALL HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS IN MANY AREAS...AND THE NUMBER OF LOCATIONS RECEIVING DECENT
RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
LONGER RANGE FORECAST HOLDS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. IF WEATHER
CONDITIONS UNFOLD AS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FIRE DANGER WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  90  73  89 /  44  67  39  62
MERIDIAN      71  90  71  91 /  41  63  33  68
VICKSBURG     72  90  72  89 /  44  63  39  62
HATTIESBURG   73  91  73  91 /  34  60  21  58
NATCHEZ       72  88  72  88 /  42  63  37  59
GREENVILLE    75  91  73  90 /  40  64  47  70
GREENWOOD     72  90  72  89 /  44  67  45  71

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

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