Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
442 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SO FAR HAS BEEN LESS ROBUST THAN INDICATED BY
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER SW MS INTO NE LA AS THE
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD THIS AFTN/EVNG. LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THIS AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT ANTICYCLONIC/
DIVERGENT AND THIS HAS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THERE...BUT LATEST
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS GOING THERE GIVEN PLENTY OF HEATING STILL LEFT IN THE DAY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW FROM SOUTHERN STORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
15 TO 20KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORM GROWTH AND
COULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECT
INTENSITY OF STORMS TO DECREASE WITH SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT
COOLING...BUT STORMS COULD LINGER OR DEVELOP AT ANYTIME DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS/TROUGH IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST (PRECIPITABLE WATER > 2
INCHES) AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR EARLIER
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD...AND THIS WOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE MICROBURST POTENTIAL. GIVEN GREATER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED THOUGH...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
AFTERNOON STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. /EC/

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SOME HEAT/DROUGHT RELIEF APPARENT IN
THE LONG TERM WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND MORE CLOUD
COVER...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

INCREASED RAIN/CLOUD PATTERN WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY AS AN INVERTED
SUB-TROPICAL TROUGH PHASES WITH A L/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKENS THE ONCE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WEAKNESS IS DEPICTED WELL ACROSS THE NWP
SUITE WITH NOTABLE H5 TROUGHING STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/EC
AND THEIR HANDLING OF AN BNDRY NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE TUE-FRI
TIMEFRAME. WHILE AIRMASS SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF
THE BNDRY...A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF A BNDRY WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST AS IT
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION TUES/WED. SHOWER/TSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL BE ON THE CHANCE TO LIKELY SIDE /40-70%/ DURING THE AFTNS WITH
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. WITH MLCAPE
/1500-2500 J/KG/...PWATS /1.8-2 IN/...AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS...
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST RISK DURING
AFTNS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
ALSO BUT LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL TOTALS LOOK MARGINAL.

BY THURS...OPS GFS DEPICTS DEEPER H5 TROUGHING OVER MID MS VALLEY
AND BRINGS THE NOW ELEVATED BNDRY THROUGH REGION BY FRI MRNG WHILE
EC IS WEAKER AND HANGS/WASHES IT OUT NORTH OF THE REGION. GFS MEAN
AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES SUPPORT OP GFS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME (WITH
GFSMEN ACTUALLY DEEPER THAN THE OPS GFS). LITTLE SFC DEWPOINT
REFLECTION LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THIS BNDRY PASSAGE BUT DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO FILTER IN H85 AND HIGHER. THIS SHOULD REDUCE (BUT NOT
ELIMINATE) RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK FOR AT
LEAST NRN/CNTRL AREAS. MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS...IN ADDITION TO
INSTABILITY-DRIVEN CU/TCU DURING THE AFTNS...SHOULD KEEP INSOLATION
DOWN. THIS COUPLED WITH 16-19C H85 TEMPS...WILL PROVIDE RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S. IT COULD BE
FORESEEABLE THAT SOME HIGH TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF RAIN/STORMS OCCUR BEFORE BEST
HEATING.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...HIGHS WERE DROPPED BELOW GUIDANCE MOST AFTNS
BY 2-4 DEGREES WITH LOWS RAISED /70F OR GREATER/ UNDER THE CLOUDY
AND MOIST CONDS. POPS CAME IN HIGHER AND ACCEPTED IN MOST CASES WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASES PRIOR TO WED. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY TODAY UNDER INCREASING
CU 4-6K FT. TSRA COVERAGE WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE S OF I-20 THRU THE
AFTN/INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO WANE 23-01Z. MORE ISOLD
SHWR/TSRA ACTIVITY IS XPCTD N OF I-20 BUT COVERAGE MAY PICK UP AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EVENING. TIMING OF THUNDER INTO SPECIFIC AIRFIELDS
REMAINS PROBLEMATIC SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL XPCTD INVOF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A GENERAL DECREASE IN
STORMS WILL UNFOLD LATER THIS EVENING/OVRNGT HOWEVER ISOLD/SCT SHWRS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HEADED INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SFC WINDS TO
REMAIN LGT AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TODAY. /BK/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MANY COUNTIES/PARISHES AROUND THE ARKLAMISS REMAIN UNDER BURN BANS
AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN RAINFALL FOR THE PAST
MONTH. HOWEVER...AREAS OF RAINFALL HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS IN MANY AREAS...AND THE NUMBER OF LOCATIONS RECEIVING DECENT
RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
LONGER RANGE FORECAST HOLDS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. IF WEATHER
CONDITIONS UNFOLD AS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FIRE DANGER WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  90  73  89 /  44  67  39  62
MERIDIAN      71  90  71  91 /  41  63  33  68
VICKSBURG     72  90  72  89 /  44  63  39  62
HATTIESBURG   73  91  73  91 /  34  60  21  58
NATCHEZ       72  88  72  88 /  42  63  37  59
GREENVILLE    75  91  73  90 /  40  64  47  70
GREENWOOD     72  90  72  89 /  44  67  45  71

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

MSZ043>066-072>074-082015-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
301 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A MOIST AND
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS COMBINING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. LOOK FOR STORMS TO DIMINISH AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HOTTEST PARTS OF
THE DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
PERHAPS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>042-082015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
301 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS
COMBINING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG
WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE HOTTEST PARTS OF THE DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
PERHAPS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

EC

MSZ065-072055-
COVINGTON MS-
324 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF COLLINS AT 324 PM
CDT...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL COVINGTON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3178 8965 3179 8951 3179 8945 3165 8943
      3160 8962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 082DEG 8KT 3172 8955

BK

MSZ062-063-072120-
LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-
349 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

 STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWEST LAWRENCE COUNTY

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER TOPEKA AT 348 PM CDT...MOVING
WEST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3135 9046 3159 9045 3152 9014 3134 9013
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 082DEG 8KT 3142 9019

MRM

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MSZ054-059-061-062-072135-
LINCOLN MS-JEFFERSON MS-FRANKLIN MS-COPIAH MS-
406 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
406 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER LOYD STAR AT 406 PM CDT...MOVING
WEST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COPIAH...NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3146 9078 3170 9081 3172 9052 3149 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 080DEG 7KT 3162 9057

MRM

MSZ065-066-072200-
JONES MS-COVINGTON MS-
432 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
432 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JONES AND COVINGTON COUNTY LINE

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 10 MILES EAST OF COLLINS AT 432 PM
CDT...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL COVINGTON AND WEST CENTRAL JONES COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3148 8956 3175 8960 3172 8935 3153 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 083DEG 6KT 3162 8939

MRM

LAZ025-MSZ053-059-060-072215-
ADAMS MS-JEFFERSON MS-CLAIBORNE MS-TENSAS LA-
448 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
448 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF LORMAN AT 447 PM
CDT...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN CLAIBORNE...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND EXTREME
NORTH CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES...AND SOUTH CENTRAL TENSAS PARISH SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3173 9134 3195 9127 3189 9101 3168 9103
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 104DEG 5KT 3180 9114

MRM