Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1158 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

.UPDATE...MORNING COMPLEX IS EVOLVING SIMILAR TO EXPECTED AND HAS NOW
PASSED THAT MORNING LULL PERIOD AND IS SHOWING CONTINUED ORGANIZATION
AS THERE REMAINS A BALANCE BETWEEN THE COLD POOL AND NEW SE
PROPAGATING CONVECTION. THE LEADING EDGE IS NOT MOVING INTO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LOOK FOR THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A MIX OF STRONG/SVR STORMS AS THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT/INSTABILITY SUPPORT THAT. DMG WIND AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN RISKS WITH THE STRONGER CORES ALONG
THE LINE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SVR TS WATCH BEING ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL/NE/E PORTIONS PER MD #724.

AS FOR SPECIFIC FORECAST ELEMENTS TODAY...MAIN ADJ HAVE BEEN TO
HOURLY TEMPS. EARLIER ADJ ARE STILL ON TRACK...BUT LOOK FOR AN UPDATE
TO POPS/WX JUST AFTER NOON TO MATCH RECENT TRENDS. THE MOST LIKELY
CHANCES WOULD BE TO LOWER POPS IN THE NW AND INCREASE VALUES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS TO FIGURE OUT IF NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
BACK TO OUR W/NW WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY HAS HUNG UP A BIT. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT NEW DEVELOP MAY OCCUR THERE WHERE BETTER FORCING
WILL EXIST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES
AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA. IF THAT
OCCURS...LOOK FOR DEVELOPMENT TO MOVE GENERALLY SE DOWN ALONG THE
LEFT OVER SFC BOUNDARY FROM THE CURRENT COMPLEX. TIMING ON THIS IS
VERY DIFFICULT AND IT APPEARS THAT LATER WOULD BE BETTER FOR OUR
AREA. MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING INTO THE DELTA AND THEY WILL BRING BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TO GWO/GLH THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINING SITES WHICH ONCE AGAIN MAY BRING
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START OUT
SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 FOR MOST SITES...BUT WILL BE GUSTY WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR MEI/HBG. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE HERE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NW AREAS THIS
MORNING TO CATCH THE S/SE MOVING COMPLEX. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS WERE
ADJ THIS MORNING TO REPRESENT THE COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE DELTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WERE LOWERED
A BIT. OTHER ADJ WERE TO TAPER POPS/WX WORDING BACK TO MORE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS.

AS FOR EXPECTATIONS WITH THIS COMPLEX...IT CURRENTLY IS SUB SVR AND
MAINLY A HEAVY PRECIP PRODUCER RIGHT NOW WITH SOME 25-40MPH WINDS.
THESE MORNING COMPLEXES TYPICALLY WANE THROUGH 9-10AM AND THIS SEEMS
TO BE FOLLOWING THE USUAL EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF IT CAN REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED THROUGH 10 AM AND NOT HAVE THE COLD POOL RACE OUT
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...THEN AN UPSWING IN INTENSITY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM COMBINES WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND SFC BASED BUOYANCY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN SVR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND/HAIL THE MAIN RISK. AT THIS
POINT...CENTRAL AND NE/E SECTIONS OF THE CWA WOULD HAVE THE PRIMARY
RISK DUE TO THE S/SE PROPAGATING COLD POOL INTERACTING WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE NW DELTA LOOKS TO GET STABILIZED THIS
MORNING AND MAY BE PROTECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING. A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW
THINGS WILL PLAY OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD EXIST AFTER WE SEE HOW
THE COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EVOLVES THIS MORNING. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  67  86  64 /  38  31  63  58
MERIDIAN      88  64  87  64 /  53  38  62  54
VICKSBURG     88  67  85  62 /  32  37  63  62
HATTIESBURG   87  65  88  66 /  44  27  50  46
NATCHEZ       87  67  86  65 /  32  21  50  48
GREENVILLE    85  68  84  61 /  76  53  50  51
GREENWOOD     85  67  86  61 /  63  56  61  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
219 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025>037-040>042-081930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
219 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FOR HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ038-039-043>066-072>074-081930-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
219 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL WILL COMBINE WITH A
MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FOR HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
110 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
05/07/2012                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TREES DOWN IN THE COUNTY. ONE IN THE CITY OF VICKSBURG
            AND ANOTHER ONE DOWN IN THE COUNTY.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
125 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW EPPS              32.62N 91.53W
05/07/2012                   WEST CARROLL       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON DUCKWORTH ROAD

&&

AEG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
238 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEESBURG                32.44N 89.76W
05/07/2012                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A SHED WAS BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 481 NEAR LEESBURG

&&

BK

LAZ015-023>026-MSZ053>055-059>065-072040-
ADAMS MS-SIMPSON MS-LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
JEFFERSON MS-FRANKLIN MS-COVINGTON MS-COPIAH MS-CLAIBORNE MS-
TENSAS LA-RICHLAND LA-FRANKLIN LA-CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-
240 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
240 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...LINE OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL PRESSING SOUTH TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LIDDIEVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANATORIUM AT 239 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN CLAIBORNE...SOUTHERN COPIAH...NORTHWESTERN
COVINGTON...FRANKLIN...JEFFERSON...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAWRENCE...
LINCOLN...SOUTHERN SIMPSON AND ADAMS COUNTIES...AND NORTHERN
CATAHOULA...NORTHERN CONCORDIA...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHWESTERN
RICHLAND AND SOUTHERN TENSAS PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3193 9201 3193 9191 3208 9193 3210 9188
      3216 9190 3220 9201 3225 9201 3227 9200
      3184 9109 3192 8974 3143 8970 3143 8982
      3139 8982 3139 9004 3133 9005 3135 9098
      3132 9112 3137 9122 3134 9134 3166 9202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 355DEG 26KT 3218 9200 3175 9108
          3182 8984

BYB