Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PRESENCE OF A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE CWA HAS
RESULTED IN ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION THAT
WAS ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER AREAS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR IS MOVING EAST AND HAS BEEN DISSIPATING...BUT CONVECTION
THAT'S MOVING THROUGH THE DELTA REGION IS PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST AS
THE RESULT OF A SOUTHEAST SINKING BOUNDARY.  THIS ACTIVITY HAD
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...BUT IS LOOKING MORE DISORGANIZED THE
LAST HOUR.

MANY HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A COMPLEX OF STORMS DIVING
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.  AS I ELUDE TO ABOVE...THIS MORE SOUTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE DELTA ALONG THIS SOUTHEAST SINKING
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE WHAT THESE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING
AT.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 10PM AS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT EXISTS WITH THESE STORMS.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET...ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
PROCEED SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PAN OUT
EXACTLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WIDE ARRAY OF
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITHIN BOTH THE HIGH-RES AND GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS.  A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RE-FIRE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND INTO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE ACTIVITY FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN...AND EVEN RECOVER A BIT...IN ABUNDANCE IN THIS WARM AND
MOISTURE AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION.  THIS COUPLED WITH GOOD
FORCING FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION...ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR...AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO EXIST ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME...WITH A FEW TORNADOES
ALSO POSSIBLE. /19/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR
FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD STILL
BE RATHER VIGOROUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE MOISTURE AXIS HANGS UP. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING (MIXED LAYER CAPE ~1500 J/KG) AND FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A FEW VORTICITY LOBES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LARGELY
VEERED AND SUPPORTIVE OF PROGRESSIVE ORGANIZED/BROKEN TSTM LINE
SEGMENTS AND DISCRETE CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS --- INCREASING LCL HEIGHTS IN THE WELL-MIXED AIR MASS AND
VEERED PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE GFS/GEFS A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING THE NEXT BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE SLOWED DOWN INTRODUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL SUNDAY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION.

THERE MAY BE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING
SIGNALS FOR RETROGRESSION OF THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION AND DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS WOULD INDUCE COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND A PERIOD OF COOL WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STORM COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH THE DELTA REGION. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SITES THAT ARE
AFFECTED BY CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME...CAN EXPECT BRIEF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE COULD BE SOME WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  84  59  83 /  58  46  51  22
MERIDIAN      61  86  63  83 /  40  45  65  32
VICKSBURG     65  85  55  82 /  58  43  39  20
HATTIESBURG   65  86  67  86 /  24  35  49  33
NATCHEZ       67  84  60  82 /  33  43  37  16
GREENVILLE    65  84  57  78 /  39  30  26  26
GREENWOOD     65  85  59  80 /  41  37  33  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

19/28/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
041015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
300 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO MERIDIAN. DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REDEVELOP FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER SETUP WEDNESDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
INCREASE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD OCCUR. THIS ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY DURING THE DAY...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
55 CORRIDOR. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH. STORMS WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

08

ARZ075-LAZ007-008-032000-
CHICOT AR-MOREHOUSE LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
230 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF KILBOURNE AT 230
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN CHICOT COUNTY...AND NORTHEASTERN WEST CARROLL
AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MOREHOUSE PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3316 9133 3302 9124 3294 9139 3301 9146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 236DEG 17KT 3300 9138

MRM

MSZ019-025-027-034>036-041-032010-
WASHINGTON MS-SUNFLOWER MS-SHARKEY MS-LEFLORE MS-HUMPHREYS MS-
HOLMES MS-CARROLL MS-
230 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF ITTA
BENA TO DELTA CITY AT 231 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL...WESTERN HOLMES...HUMPHREYS...
LEFLORE...NORTHEASTERN SHARKEY...SOUTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3348 8985 3309 9004 3298 9026 3301 9033
      3302 9034 3301 9036 3301 9044 3293 9045
      3292 9057 3309 9099 3331 9057 3369 9038
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 296DEG 35KT 3356 9031 3326 9046
          3309 9078

JC

LAZ007>009-032035-
MOREHOUSE LA-EAST CARROLL LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
304 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
304 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF GOODWILL AT 305 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL WEST CARROLL...WEST CENTRAL EAST CARROLL AND EAST
CENTRAL MOREHOUSE PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3297 9141 3278 9128 3268 9148 3282 9160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 234DEG 16KT 3280 9145

MRM

ARZ074-032045-
ASHLEY AR-
314 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST CROSSETT
AT 314 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ASHLEY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3313 9212 3315 9211 3317 9214 3323 9204
      3305 9196 3302 9205 3303 9212 3306 9212
      3308 9214 3311 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 237DEG 17KT 3306 9211

MRM

LAZ009-MSZ040-032105-
ISSAQUENA MS-EAST CARROLL LA-
337 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF TRANSYLVANIA
AT 337 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN ISSAQUENA COUNTY...AND SOUTHEASTERN EAST CARROLL PARISH
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3274 9128 3278 9116 3284 9115 3290 9106
      3299 9111 3290 9115 3292 9121 3301 9115
      3301 9091 3284 9096 3266 9096 3266 9073
      3264 9069 3256 9073 3257 9086 3244 9086
      3245 9094 3243 9096 3257 9097 3254 9124
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 338DEG 9KT 3269 9114

JC

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