Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...THIS IS A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 64 FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...TO EXPAND SVR TSTORM WATCH 60 FOR
PORTIONS OF SW MISSISSIPPI...AND TO REMOVE BOLIVAR AND ASHLEY
COUNTIES FROM SVR WATCH 60. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 319 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS UPPER
LEVEL ASCENT...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...OVERSPREADS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA ALSO HAS FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR COMBO WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT
AND SBCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E
AHEAD OF FRONT AND AFFECT THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT THAT THE TORNADO RISK IS
LOWER IN THIS AREA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED
AROUND...HENCE WE HAVE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VERSUS A TORNADO
WATCH FOR THIS AREA.

FARTHER EAST...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPING N/NE OF KJAN
IN THE NEW TORNADO WATCH AREA. CURRENTLY THIS AREA IS NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE FROM A THERMODYNAMIC SENSE...AS AN AREA OF LOWER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN DEWPOINTS DOWN AROUND 60F AND SBCAPE VALUES
ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS
PRESSURE FALLS MOVING INTO THE AREA KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM VEERING
AS MUCH AS AREAS FARTHER WEST. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY SURGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...AND EXPECT THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR TORNADIC
STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL REGIONS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...AND EXPECT THAT
AREAS EAST OF I-55 WILL BE THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE GREATEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONT IN UNCAPPED
WARM SECTOR. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY 4KM SPC WRF WHICH SHOWS BEST
SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS
BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING WIND POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY BE OBSERVED WITH MIXED MODE OF BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED WITH MOST INTENSE CORES. /AEG/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...LATER ON TONIGHT
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT AS LIKELY AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING HAS
THE FRONT MOVING PAST THE GLH/GWO AREA AROUND 00Z...THROUGH THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND JACKSON METRO AREAS AROUND 03-04Z...THROUGH THE
MEI/BROOKHAVEN AREA AROUND 06Z...AND THROUGH THE PINE BELT AROUND
09Z. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY GUIDANCE POPS HAVE COME UP FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE QUITE
A BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH. SO WE COULD SEE SOME
POST FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTING...MAINLY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING PAST THE AREA...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY BRINGING NEARLY
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT THROUGH 22Z WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE/LONG TERM CONTINUES
TO LOOK QUIET WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS BEING TEMPS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SAT AND HELP PUSH SOUTHWARD COOLER/DRIER AIR UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS COOLER AIR WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL TUE...BEFORE SOME MODERATION
OCCURS BY MID WEEK. FOR THE MOST PART...GFS GUID TEMPS WERE DECENT
AND WERE FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED AT A FEW
SITES BASED OFF ENSEMBLE GUID AND SUPPORT FROM THE EURO. MOST OF
THESE LOW END MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO HIGHS SUN/MON/TUE.
OVERALL...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO WAIT UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
/CME/

&&

.AVIATION...SEVERE TSRA HAS BEGUN DEVELOPING ACROSS AREAS N OF
I-20...ALONG THE COLD FRONT BACK IN NE LA/SE AR/NW MS...AND OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NE MS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE MOST OF THE REGION THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN...GRADUALLY
MAKING ITS WAT SE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE TSRA
WILL END ACROSS SERN MS AFTER 04Z TONIGHT. SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY UP IN THE DELTA WHERE GUSTS TO 35
OR 40KTS WILL BE PSBL. SFC WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND GUSTY LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. /BK/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/AEG/CME/BK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
756 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             6 NNE BIGBEE VALLEY     33.33N 88.33W
03/02/2012  E1.75 INCH       LOWNDES            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CME

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

MSZ048-030240-
HINDS MS-
815 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
815 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EDWARDS AT 815 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT
55 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE OVER THE NEXT 10
TO 20 MINUTES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL HINDS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3242 9039 3238 9020 3217 9027 3220 9065
      3237 9059
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 260DEG 49KT 3232 9046

CME