Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ONGOING LARGE SWATH OF
RAIN IS CONTINUING TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON. A
FAIRLY STEADY RAIN IS OCCURRING LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 WITH
SPOTTIER SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE PINE BELT REGION. RAIN HAS
CLEARED MOSTLY OUT OF THE DELTA REGION. THE AREA THAT IS SEEING THE
WORST OF THE WEATHER IS DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST. IN THIS AREA...MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING...WITH NOT ONLY LIGHTNING BUT ALSO
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A BIT OF ROTATION BEING SEEN IN SOME
OF THESE STORMS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A FEW SEVERE WARNINGS BUT AN
ADDITIONAL ISSUE HAS BEEN THE RAINFALL. JUST OVER 2 INCHES HAS
FALLEN HERE AT THE OFFICE BUT RADAR ESTIMATES ABOUT 3-5 INCHES HAS
FALLEN JUST ACROSS THE MS RIVER IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...WHERE THE
BETTER CONVECTION HAS BEEN. THIS ALL COMES AS A WARM FRONT IS
SITUATED DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST AND HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MOVE NORTH
TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY THIS HAS GREATLY LIMITED WARMING FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY REACHED INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
AND UPPER 50S ALONG I-20. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN THE ONLY
LOCATIONS TO WARM DECENTLY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN A DEARTH OF
RAINFALL AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE CWA.

THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER
THERE STILL REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS THE STRONGER STORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE NATCHEZ AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CONTINUOUS RAINS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20. AS THE RAIN PROGRESSES NORTHWARD
TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY FOR MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LOCATED GENERALLY ACROSS THE KS/MO BORDER WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY WEST OF THIS. THIS WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT CLOSE TO AND THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR AND COOLING
ALOFT TO SUPPORT SOME RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AREAWIDE.
GIVEN ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN TODAY...THERE COULD BE SOME
QUESTION OF HOW THE AIRMASS WILL RECOVER BUT THERE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS MUCH RAIN AS TODAY IN THE MORNING....SO THIS WILL ALLOW THE
REGION TO WARM UP AS WELL BEING MORE SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE REGION. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE MS DELTA REGION BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL EXIT BY EARLY
EVENING BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH GENERALLY ZONAL/SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THE FROPA...SKIES WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN OF RECENT WEEKS WITH HIGHS A BIT MORE SEASONAL IN THE
60S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S. /28/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH INDUCED MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER OUR
CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENING BUT SHIFT EAST OVER THE
OZARKS MAINTAINING A DRY NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEAK WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES EMERGING IN THE POSITION AN STRENGTH OF
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES. TUESDAY ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE CLOSED LOW THAN THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES BY WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUING TO BE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA
THE GULF WILL REMAIN CLOSED AND THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF HERE AND CUT GFS MOS
POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO
PLAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR BAJA
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. BOTH MODELS FOR DIFFERENT REASONS
AGREE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE
TO THESE FEATURES SO HAVE ACCEPTED GFS POPS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COMPARED TO THE LAST WEEK...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND MORNING LOWS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...LOTS OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAS KEPT
CEILINGS ON THE LOW SIDE. THERE IS GENERALLY A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RA TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND BECOMING GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-20.
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES SOUTH OF I-20 BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KTS...BUT WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AT MOST
SITES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT FAR LESS
RAIN AROUND THAN THIS PAST NIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL BE
AN ISSUE...THEREFORE FLIGHT CATS WILL BE BELOW VFR IN MOST CASES.
/BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  74  47  62 /  53  92  72  13
MERIDIAN      59  74  53  66 /  58  86  88  13
VICKSBURG     61  74  45  60 /  58  92  52  12
HATTIESBURG   59  77  56  67 /  32  70  82  16
NATCHEZ       63  74  48  60 /  45  92  56  19
GREENVILLE    57  72  43  57 /  89  91  35   9
GREENWOOD     61  74  44  60 /  57  92  62  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/22/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
306 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

MSZ054-055-059>064-042115-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-
306 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 50 TO 60 MPH
WINDS...QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OR
DEPART LATER THIS EVENING.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>029-034>036-
040>042-042115-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
306 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. A TORNADO
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MSZ052-056>058-065-066-072>074-042115-
LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
306 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MSZ030>033-037>039-043>051-053-042115-
CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-CLAIBORNE-
306 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BOTH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT MINOR TO
MODERATE PONDING OF WATER ISSUES WILL LIKELY BE
ENCOUNTERED...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
226 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S NATCHEZ             31.49N 91.39W
02/03/2012                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER BEGINNING TO ENTER A HOUSE ALONG LOWER WOODVILLE
            ROAD

&&

BK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW KINGSTON           31.42N 91.29W
02/03/2012                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO TREES DOWN ALONG KINGSTON ROAD

&&

BK

MSZ062-032220-
LINCOLN MS-
352 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CENTER POINT AT
352 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3158 9063 3159 9063 3162 9053 3134 9050
      3134 9063
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 264DEG 22KT 3145 9071

BK