Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...WATCHING TWO AREAS OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE OTHER...WHICH IS A MORE
PRESSING CONCERN...IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AND IS
BEING INSTIGATED BY A RATHER STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERN FRINGES
OF STORMS TO OUR SOUTH MAY STILL BRUSH THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND RUMBLE OF THUNDER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THEIR MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WELL OF THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ACTIVITY NOW
JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST HAS JUST RECENTLY PROMPTED ISSUANCE
OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR A SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA. THESE LATTER STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE STABLE...BUT FORCING ALOFT PRODUCED BY THE
TROUGH IS STRONG AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLD. THIS IS A RECIPE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OF MAINLY A HAIL RISK (SINCE RATHER WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT MAKE TORNADOES AT ALL LIKELY). THINKING IS THAT
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS LOOKING TO PUSH EAST DOWN THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD HOLD ON TO ENOUGH POTENCY TO
BRING DECENT CHANCE OF HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO CLEVELAND DOWN
TO GRENADA. FURTHER SOUTH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY WANES...WHILE LIKELIHOOD THAT ANY OF THOSE STORMS WILL LOSE
INTENSITY MORE QUICKLY GROWS.

BUT EVEN IF ACTIVITY IS NOT SEVERE THIS EVENING...IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT MANY RESIDENTS OF THE ARKLAMISS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
WILL GET SOME FORM OF RAIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
THE BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR I-20 LATE TONIGHT PROVIDING MINOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS ALONG THAT ZONE INTO EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE ONLY MARGINAL COOLING IN LOCATIONS GETTING
PASSED BY THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEADING TO PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG AROUND AT DAYBREAK.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT ANTICIPATE THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT TO BE PIVOTING BACK UP NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR MAY HANG ON A BIT
TIGHTER IN EASTERN MS. DRIVING THIS EVOLUTION WILL BE A MASSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND
PROMOTING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.
WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR REGION GENERALLY HIGHEST WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55. MODELS STILL SHOWING SERIOUS DISAGREEMENTS GOING INTO
THIS WEEKEND ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN INTO THE PLAINS...SPECIFICALLY ABOUT HOW
QUICKLY THIS TEMPORARILY CUT-OFF ENERGY PHASES BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. OUR CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS IDEA OF A
RELATIVELY QUICK PHASE AND SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DRYING ON
SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER AND LINGERS WETNESS
CONSIDERABLY LONGER. STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE GFS FORECAST FOR
NOW.

THE PREVIOUS LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ATTACHED
SINCE IT DEALS WITH SOME OF THESE LONG RANGE ISSUES IN GREATER
DETAIL. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012/

LONG TERM...HUMID AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH FRI/SAT BEFORE COOLER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWER CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS IN FORECAST
EVOLUTION SUNDAY AND BEYOND DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

FOR FRIDAY MORNING...THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS INFILTRATE NORTHWARD
DUE TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS A DEEP AND
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. ONGOING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY AS STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN
PRESENCE OF 800-1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND A S/WV EJECTING AHEAD OF THE
NOW CLOSED CUT-OFF TROUGH OVER CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT DECENT
COVERAGE. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF A COLUMBIA TO JACKSON TO GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI LINE COULD BECOME
STRONG AND SEVERE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS OF WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING 0-1 KM SRH VALUES INVOF
600-800 J/KG MUCAPE FRIDAY NIGHT MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

A QUICK BREAK IN THE RAIN COULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING AS S/WV PULLS
OFF BUT RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK PROBABLE TO RETURN BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE SAME POTENTIAL HAZARDS AS FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...HAVE BLENDED OPS GFS/GEM/DGEX WITH THE EC
ROUGHLY 70/30. THE OPS GFS/DGEX CONTINUE TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FILLED CLOSED H5 LOW BEING PHASED IN WITH A STRONG
VORTICITY LOBE ACROSS THE NE CONUS BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS PROGRESSIVE
NATURE DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE RAIN
SHOWERS. THE EC CONTINUES TO HANG BACK THE CLOSED LOW OVER CNTRL
KANSAS VS OPS GFS/DGEX FARTHER ENE OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.
THIS POSITIONING ALLOWS THE STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX ACROSS THE NE CONUS
TO COMPLETELY MISS THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THE EC
PATTERN DICTATES THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY
AND DO SO VERY SLOWLY. THE GEM IS SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS
WITH A PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CLOSED LOW AND SFC COLD FRONT BUT
SHOWS THE H5 CLOSED LOW NOT PHASING WITH THE VORT LOBE OVER NE CONUS
AND DOES LINGER PRECIP THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY ACROSS SE AREAS.
FURTHERMORE...NEARLY ALL INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR THE
OPS GFS SOLUTION...THUS A 70/30 WEIGHTING WAS APPLIED TO THE SUN-WED
TIME FRAME.

THAT BEING STATED...HAVE ADDED IN SHOWER WORDING FOR SUNDAY MORNING
AND SOME THUNDER WORDING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
SLOWER TIMING PER EC FOR ERN AREAS OF MS. LOW TEMPS WERE ALSO
INCREASED OVER MEXMOS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR SUN MORNING. FOR
MON-WED...COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON PAR
REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ONCE
AGAIN WED. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO SOME MVFR SCATTERED CIGS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THAT
CONVECTION MAY COME DOWN TO THE I 20 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SOME POCKETS OF DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THE FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AROUND 5-7 KNOTS./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       53  74  56  70 /  29  20  51  78
MERIDIAN      55  72  57  67 /  24  10  31  71
VICKSBURG     52  75  58  71 /  30  25  62  81
HATTIESBURG   57  76  57  73 /  33  17  43  69
NATCHEZ       55  76  61  73 /  23  31  63  74
GREENVILLE    55  70  57  69 /  28  14  58  90
GREENWOOD     56  71  59  68 /  40  13  42  84

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/17/ALLEN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
701 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     LODI                    33.55N 89.52W
02/01/2012  E50.00 MPH       MONTGOMERY         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS DOWNED IN THE LODI AREA

&&

DL

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