Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO EASTERN MS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST MISSISSIPPI...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG OR SEVERE. THE PRECIP WILL BE ENDING TONIGHT AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS SETTLING IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING TRANQUIL AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
SHOULD GET HIGHS CLOSE TO...OR A LITTLE ABOVE...60 DEGREES WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER...YET DRY...COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE THE BREAK OF DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS COULD BE GUSTY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE LAKES AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. MAINLY STUCK
WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS FOR POPS...CUT THOSE BACK SOME AS PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. /27/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...BEHIND A WEAK AND DRY COLD
FRONT...PLEASANT AND COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY WARM UP TO
AROUND 60. MEANWHILE...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY CAUSING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET BACK UP OVER THE CWA.  THIS WILL CAUSE
MOISTURE TO INCREASE THUS CONDITIONS TO WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  DECENT
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO EXIST AREAWIDE DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS WANTS
TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE COAST...WHILE THE EUROPEAN LOOKS TO NEVER
REALLY BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND BREAKS SHOWERS BACK OUT
ACROSS US ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY.  SINCE THIS IS AT
THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED AND SOLUTIONS WILL LIKELY VARY OVER
THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS...I WON'T STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE DURING
THIS PERIOD FOR THE TIME BEING. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AS BKN STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK. BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  61  39  58 /   8   0   1   2
MERIDIAN      43  62  35  62 /  17   0   0   3
VICKSBURG     38  61  37  56 /   4   0   1   2
HATTIESBURG   44  64  38  64 /  10   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       39  61  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    38  58  40  50 /  16   0   2   3
GREENWOOD     38  60  39  52 /  24   0   2   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

27/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1225 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

MSZ029>033-038-039-045-046-051-052-057-058-271830-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-
1225 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG AND ONE TO TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
PRIMARY HAZARDS POSSIBLE WILL BE DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL
END TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-
040>044-047>050-053>056-059>066-072>074-271830-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1225 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1153 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HATTIESBURG             31.31N 89.31W
01/26/2012                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL INTERSECTIONS IN AND NEAR HATTIESBURG HAD BECOME
            INUNDATED WITH WATER. ALSO THE INTERSECTIONS OF HIGHWAY
            49 AND FORREST, HIGHWAY 49 AND MIMOSA AS WELL AS NEAR
            SHONEYS ON SOUTH 27TH STREET.

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
135 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LAUREL                  31.69N 89.14W
01/26/2012                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING ON JEFFERSON...ELKSVILLE...JOE
            WHEELER..AND TERESA STREETS. WATER WAS ALSO COVERING
            PORTIONS OF I-59 FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

ALLEN

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