Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2012

.UPDATE...RAISED LOWS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO HANG IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS
ACCOMPANIED BY ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE WEST. AS FOR FOG...THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR PERSISTENT DENSE
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT IN VICINITY
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR POPS...LOWERED POPS ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR RAISING POPS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 EAST OF JACKSON WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 200-400J/KG IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING TO STUBBORN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF I-55...A COUPLE OF WHICH HAVE BECOME RATHER
POTENT. WE SHOULD SEE THE STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A ROGUE SEVERE STORM ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION.
PRIMARY RISK WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN POSTED. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
BELOW. /BK/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARY EVOLUTION TO OUR NORTH
AND THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

HAVE WARMED MAX HIGHS A TOUCH ACROSS SOME AREAS FROM THIS MORNINGS
PREVIOUS THINKING AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE
INSOLATION THAN EXPECTED. KGLH CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPS STILL REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S. BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW REMAINS
PARALLEL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN PROGGED TO OOZE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY WITH HELP OF STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM NORTH AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES ACROSS THE NWRN
GULF. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WERE ADDED FOR MONDAY MORNING AS SREF
PROBS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSION INDICATE GOOD DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL. WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL HELP OF SW/V
PASSAGE. RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO EXPAND
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN AREAS. WITH PWATS NEAR 1.3
IN...ONE INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES COULD OCCUR DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION OF SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS LOOK TO BE OCCURRING AS SMALL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS AHEAD OF CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND SFC LOW MOVES
INLAND ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...LOW-LVL WINDS
WILL BACK AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...DRAWING A TONGUE OF H85 325 K
THETA-E AIR NRD UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION OF H25 CYCLONIC-CURVED 110 KT
DIFFLUENT JETSTREAK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
INITIALLY BE LOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH 300-900 J/KG POOLED
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS MS RIVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT ~6 HOURS WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SFC STABILIZATION ALONG ERN AREAS BEFORE THE BEST
FORCING REACHES THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF DEEPER THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.
ATTM...A SQUALL LINE WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE
THE LIKELY STORM MODE AND RESPECTIVE RISK. INSTABILITY AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY FIELDS APPEAR TO SPATIALLY DISJOINTED FOR THE MENTION OF A
TORNADO OR TWO IN HWO ATTM...BUT PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. THE
FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ENDING STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTORM RISK AS SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
HOLD ON.

FOR FORECAST MATTERS...MAV POPS WERE FOLLOWED FOR TONIGHT AND THEN
BUMPED UP DURING THE DAY PERIOD MONDAY. MAV POPS WERE ADJUSTED ABOVE
GUIDANCE BOTH PERIODS TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG FORCING AND SOLID
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH SOME INCREASES TO QPF FIELDS ALSO. MAV LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY GIVEN EXPECTED
DEWPOINT FIELD EVOLUTION AND CLOUD COVER. MAV HIGHS WERE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. /ALLEN/

LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...BUT
DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY... MODEL AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE
WINDOW. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW AND PUSH IT
EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE OFF QUITE
A BIT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND CLEARING OUT BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WILL PUT NO CONFIDENCE
IN IT AS THIS IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OUT. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...

A TREND TOWARD IFR/LIFR CIG/VSBY IS XPCTD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR/VFR CONDS THRU THE NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MS. LIGHT RAIN/EMBEDDED TS IS PLAGUING AREAS ALONG/S
OF I-20 E OF I-55 TONIGHT AND THIS IS XPCTD TO CONTINUE TO FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HRS BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING E AROUND MIDNIGHT. SHWR
ACTIVITY WILL TRY AND PICK UP AROUND DAYBREAK ALONG/W OF THE MS RIVER
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING SCT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY MON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. SFC WINDS WILL BE LGT AND NRLY/NERLY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND SRLY/SERLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  67  55  69 /  78  94  80 100
MERIDIAN      56  70  54  67 /  77  86  58  98
VICKSBURG     57  61  54  70 /  71  99  91  99
HATTIESBURG   59  74  59  71 /  56  63  70  98
NATCHEZ       58  67  58  70 /  41 100  99  98
GREENVILLE    51  58  50  65 /  54  82  67 100
GREENWOOD     55  61  51  67 /  54  82  57  88

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BK

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