Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
225 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST
HOUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS UPPER LEVEL ASCENT...CLEARLY
VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...OVERSPREADS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AREA ALSO HAS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR COMBO WITH
EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT AND SBCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AHEAD OF FRONT AND AFFECT THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THAT THE TORNADO RISK IS LOWER IN THIS AREA AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED AROUND...HENCE WE HAVE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH VERSUS A TORNADO WATCH FOR THIS AREA.

FARTHER EAST...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPING N/NE OF KJAN
IN THE NEW TORNADO WATCH AREA. CURRENTLY THIS AREA IS NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE FROM A THERMODYNAMIC SENSE...AS AN AREA OF LOWER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN DEWPOINTS DOWN AROUND 60F AND SBCAPE VALUES
ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS
PRESSURE FALLS MOVING INTO THE AREA KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM VEERING
AS MUCH AS AREAS FARTHER WEST. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY SURGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...AND EXPECT THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR TORNADIC
STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL REGIONS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...AND EXPECT THAT
AREAS EAST OF I-55 WILL BE THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE GREATEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONT IN UNCAPPED
WARM SECTOR. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY 4KM SPC WRF WHICH SHOWS BEST
SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS
BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING WIND POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY BE OBSERVED WITH MIXED MODE OF BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED WITH MOST INTENSE CORES.  /AEG/

&&

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1031 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/
WE ARE OFF TO A RATHER WARM AND WINDY START THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE
ALREADY INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AS OF 16Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY DISSIPATED
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL ONLY AID IN SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. ALSO APPARENT WAS A PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND EUPORA TO YAZOO CITY TO AROUND MONROE
LA. THIS EXTENDS FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA...WHERE
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING.

SOME RECENT HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS SHOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING A BIT
EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED...IN THE SAME AREA OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. IF THIS DOES TAKE PLACE...THIS IS
POTENTIALLY TROUBLING...AS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE GREATER DUE TO
THE TIME OF DAY. AND MODELS ARE INDICATING BETTER HELICITY IN THIS
AREA THAN ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF A CAP DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND MODIFIED 12Z KJAN
SOUNDING INDICATES THE SAME. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...
THOUGH AS TO WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. THE 12Z NAM STILL
DID NOT SHOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
HRRR...WHICH IS SHOWING EARLIER DEVELOPMENT...WAS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH DEVELOPMENT EARLIER THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS BELIEVE IT WOULD
BE PRUDENT TO BUMP UP POPS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER
19Z. WILL ALSO ADD SEVERE WORDING DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IF SEVERE
STORMS DO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...TORNADOES WILL BE A
GREATER THREAT THAN THEY WOULD BE LATER IN THE DAY WITH ANY ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

STILL ALSO EXPECTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER INTO THE EVENING
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...SO AREAS TO THE NW OF THE
PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL HAVE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER ON.

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. WINDS ARE
ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS IN THIS AREA...AND SEE NO REASON TO
MAKE CHANGES TO THIS. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO ADJUST TO CURRENT OBS
TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIG PLAGUING THE REGION ARE XPCTD TO GO VFR 16-18Z
W/VFR CONDS PERSISTING THRU THE AFTN. SEVERE TSRA WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG A STF TO VKS LINE SOMETIME BETWEEN
19-21Z...WITH THE LINE ADVANCING TO THE SE THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE TSRA MAY DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE THIS AFTN AS WELL/MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. SFC WINDS WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY THRU THE AFTN TODAY...ESPECIALLY UP IN THE DELTA
WHERE GUSTS TO 35 OR 40KTS WILL BE PSBL. SFC WINDS WILL DROP OFF
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND GUSTY LATER TONIGHT
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES. /BK/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>027-034>036-040>042.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

AEG/DL/BK/28/CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ026>033-036>061-031800-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
315 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS NOW IN PROGRESS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS TO
80 MPH...AND TORNADOES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...
PARTICUARLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. THESE
STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN A FEW WAVES OF ACTIVITY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. AN ENHANCED RISK OF
TORNADOES...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO...WILL
EXIST GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AND 9 PM.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO...WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-031800-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
315 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM. LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WINDS TO 75 MPH WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE OF
ANY STORMS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END BY EARLY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

MSZ062>066-072>074-031800-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
315 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO...WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             5 ESE ARTESIA           33.39N 88.56W
03/02/2012  E2.75 INCH       LOWNDES            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TENNIS BALL TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
303 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     HAIL             2 N LAKE VILLAGE        33.35N 91.28W
03/02/2012  E1.75 INCH       CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STRONG WINDS ALSO REPORTED. ALONG HIGHWAY 82 N OF LAKE
            VILLAGE.

&&

GERARD

MSZ019-025-022135-
SUNFLOWER MS-LEFLORE MS-
305 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 15 MILES WEST OF SUNFLOWER AT 305
PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN LEFLORE AND CENTRAL SUNFLOWER COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3380 9018 3378 9017 3376 9019 3375 9028
      3372 9031 3370 9027 3374 9024 3373 9014
      3368 9013 3365 9010 3358 9010 3349 9076
      3361 9077 3362 9066 3377 9066 3382 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 253DEG 39KT 3356 9077

DHB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
306 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     HAIL             WINTERVILLE             33.50N 91.06W
03/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         MS   PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
307 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             LAKE VILLAGE            33.32N 91.28W
03/02/2012  M1.75 INCH       CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN LAKE VILLAGE ALONG
            HIGHWAY 82

&&

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     HAIL             NEW HOPE                33.45N 88.32W
03/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       LOWNDES            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GERARD