Severe Thunderstorm Warning 653, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1022 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX SCENARIO ONGOING THIS MORNING AS ONE OF THE MORE DYNAMIC
SYSTEMS I HAVE SEEN AT THIS LATITUDE IMPACTING THE AREA. THE HIGHLY
UNUSUAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUANTIFIED BY PSU ANOMALY CHARTS
WHICH SHOW 500 MB AND MSLP WILL BE 4-5 SIGMA BELOW NORMAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SLU CIPS WHICH HAS NO MATCHING ANALOGS WITH A SCORE
ABOVE 9.5 INDICATING LIMITED ABILITY TO MATCH WITH ANY HISTORICAL
PATTERN. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWING A HIGHLY VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR
CWA...WITH SATELLITE SHOWING LOTS OF SUN DEVELOPING IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. AS INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN LA THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT N AND AS 90-100 KT
MID LEVEL JET SWINGS OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE. HIGH RESOLUTION AND CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AGREE ON NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH UPDRAFT
HELICITY VALUES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH 1/2 OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND HAVE WORDED HWO AND SPS VERY STRONGLY. MAIN QUESTION
AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MAJOR THREAT GETS. HIGH RES WRF RUNS IMPLY WARM FRONT
MAKING IT UP TO ABOUT I-20 IN MS AND CURLING BACK SW FROM THERE AS
DEEPENING LOW GRADUALLY FORMS AN OCCLUSION AND MOVES THROUGH THE
DELTA. TEND TO LEAN TOWARD THIS TYPE OF EVOLUTION WITH GREATEST
TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG AND S OF A WINNSBORO...TO CANTON...TO MACON
LINE...BUT 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR IMPLIES THIS COULD GET A BIT FARTHER
N AND HAVE WORDED HWO/SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. IT SHOULD BE
STRESSED THAT AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT COULD HAVE A
PARTICULARLY ENHANCED TORNADIC RISK SHOULD A SUPERCELL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A QLCS COULD ENHANCE
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL EVEN FARTHER N INTO NC/NE MS...BUT THINK COLD
AIR WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE UPPER DELTA TO RESULT IN
ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK BEING PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF HAIL

OTHER BIG THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION...AND PONDING OF WATER ALREADY AN ISSUE. 1.81" HAS FALLEN
AT KJAN. WITH INCREASED ASCENT AND LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE
ARKLATEX ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN SYSTEM STILL TO COME THROUGH...HAVE
HOISTED AN FFA FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STORM TOTALS
OF 2-4" WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS...WHICH IN DECEMBER ALMOST
ALWAYS CAUSES AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...CONTINUED TREND TOWARD A SLIGHLY MORE SE TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW INTO PLAY
IN THE DELTA TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE INCREDIBLE
BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLD AIR NOT FAR AWAY (25F IN NW
AR AND 72 AT KBTR). HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO SPEED UP THE MIXING IN
WITH SNOW A BIT IN THE DELTA THIS EVENING...AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR BOLIVAR
COUNTY FOR TONIGHT. WILL LOOK AT THIS MORE CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING AND XPCTD TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH PERIODIC
+TSRA/HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES. STRONG AND SEVERE
+TSRA COULD OCCUR THIS AFTN WITH 65-75 KT GUSTS AND HALF-DOLLAR
SIZED HAIL ALONG WITH TORNADOES FOR CNTRL/SRN SITES AND POSSIBLY
KGTR. STORM TOPS TO FL450-500 AND SEVERE TURBULENCE CAN BE XPCTD
INVOF STORMS. SEVERE RISKS WILL END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE E
THIS MORNING AND VEER SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN WHILE PICKING UP TO 15
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THEN VEER TO W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

FOR KGLH/KGWO...A BRIEF CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
THEN TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE 26/02-08Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIGHT
DUSTING ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL SITES WITH NRN SITES BRING LAST TO

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  35  44  27 / 100  73   3   0
MERIDIAN      65  37  46  25 / 100  95   5   0
VICKSBURG     62  34  43  25 / 100  51   2   0
HATTIESBURG   71  39  51  27 / 100  90   4   0
NATCHEZ       68  35  44  26 / 100  33   2   0
GREENVILLE    52  33  40  26 / 100  95  10   0
GREENWOOD     56  36  41  25 / 100  95  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>042-047-053-059-060.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

AEG/JA/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ038-039-043>066-072>074-262145-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-
RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
341 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...LONG
TRACKED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO AN ONGOING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND SQUALL LINE PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL CAUSING FLASHING FLOODING.

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND FLASH FLOODING RAINFALL ARE ALIGNED
ALONG INTERSTATE 55 AND ARE MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THE GREATEST RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BROOKHAVEN MISSISSIPPI TO JACKSON TO MACON
MISSISSIPPI LINE. THE SEVERE WEATHER HAS CLEARED NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
PEOPLE SHOULD ENSURE THEY HAVE A WAY TO GET WEATHER WARNINGS WHILE
PARTICIPATING IN CHRISTMAS ACTIVITIES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS...HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AND
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE MOVING INTO EAST AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WITH INTENSE DOWNPOURS OF RAIN EXPECTED...SOME FLASH FLOODING
COULD OCCUR. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NEEDED RIGHT NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAZ007>009-MSZ019-025>033-035>037-040>042-262145-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
341 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OF 60
MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND A ONE OR TWO TORNADOES...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND FAR WEST MISSISSIPPI ARE CLEAR
OF THE SEVERE STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS...IS ANTICIPATED. WITH INTENSE DOWNPOURS OF
RAIN EXPECTED...SOME FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-034-262145-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-WASHINGTON-
341 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR .

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...RAIN LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER SNOW FOR A
TIME. WHILE WIDESPREAD TRAVEL ISSUES ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A
DUSTING TO SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN HALF OF ONE INCH OF SNOW
COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 82.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
318 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JACKSON                 32.32N 90.21W
12/25/2012                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF FLOODING AT MILL STREET AND MONUMENT STREET.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE CLINTON           32.27N 90.31W
12/25/2012                   HINDS              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTS OF CARS BEING STALLED ON TERRY ROAD NEAR MCDOWELL
            ROAD.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW HAZLEHURST        31.89N 90.40W
12/25/2012                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF TREE ACROSS HIGHWAY 51 CLOSE TO DIXON ROAD.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S JACKSON             32.27N 90.22W
12/25/2012                   HINDS              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTS OF CARS BEING STALLED ON TERRY ROAD NEAR MCDOWELL
            ROAD.

&&
CORRECTED LOCATION

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
356 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THOMASTOWN              32.86N 89.67W
12/25/2012                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 43 NEAR THOMASTOWN.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW BURNSIDE          32.87N 89.17W
12/25/2012                   NESHOBA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 19...ONE NEAR MARTY STUART
            DRIVE...ANOTHER NEAR THE BETHSAIDA COMMUNITY.

&&

DCOX