Severe Thunderstorm Warning 498, NWS Jackson, MS

966 
WWUS54 KJAN 131259
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
759 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

MSC011-131330-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0498.000000T0000Z-120813T1330Z/
BOLIVAR MS-
759 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT
FOR BOLIVAR COUNTY...

AT 759 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DEESON TO 6 MILES WEST OF BEULAH
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DUNCAN...ALLIGATOR...SHELBY...PACE...WINSTONVILLE...RENOVA...MOUND
BAYOU...MERIGOLD...CLEVELAND AND BOYLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

&&

LAT...LON 3412 9065 3365 9066 3373 9115 3379 9113
      3378 9099 3385 9108 3393 9102 3397 9110
      3400 9101 3396 9098 3402 9099 3403 9090
      3409 9088 3409 9092 3412 9096
TIME...MOT...LOC 1259Z 278DEG 17KT 3405 9087 3376 9106

$$

JA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

...FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NORTH TODAY...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RATHER DRY
WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES RETURN TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT
WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW NOTED OVER MISSOURI EARLY
THIS MORNING THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NW ZONES
BY THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND BRING
AN INCREASE OF DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS OUR WHOLE CWA. A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS AND A PW BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF
STILL RESIDED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON LOWER 70 DEW POINTS AND A PW CLOSER TO TWO INCHES IS
EXPECTED TO BE BACK ACROSS THE CWA. LOCAL RADARS ALREADY SHOW SOME
CONVECTION OVER OUR NW ZONES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
AND ALLOW FOR HEATING BY AFTN. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 90S TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF
2000-2500J/KG...6.5C MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR
27C OVER OUR DELTA REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY
OVER THE DELTA REGION BUT ALSO ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND AS
FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 20. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
RISK WITH NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL SECONDARY. THERE WILL BE A
NOTED DECREASE IN CONVECTION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BUT...ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. THE GFS IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR
THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
TUESDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA. WL CARRY GFS MOS POPS FOR
NOW AS THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO PORTIONS OF
THE OVERNIGHTS DURING THE LONG TERM. RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES GO UP
FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NWP SUITE THIS MORNING WITH LONG TERM
CHARACTERIZED BY ERN CONUS TROUGHING /WITH SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV'S
ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY/ THAT WILL AID IN EXTENDING DIURNAL
SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY INTO OVRNGT HOURS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
RECOVERY DAY AS SLY MOISTURE RETURN INFILTRATES NORTH ACROSS SW/W
ZONES WHERE GREATEST POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED. ENHANCED ZONAL TO WNW
FLOW WED INTO THURS ALONG WITH AN PROGGED EMBEDDED S/WV WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME DIURNAL ACTIVITY (ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH) TO LINGER OVRNGT. AN ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE LOOKS ON TAP
FOR THURS WITH PULSE AIRMASS TSTORMS EXPECTED DURING AFTN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION WITH SOME PSBL ENHANCEMENT OF STRENGTH/ LONGEVITY
FROM A PROGGED S/WV PER GFS/EC.

PWATS OF 1.8-2.0" WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY AS
SFC LOW ACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY CREATES STRONG SLY FLOW. ATTENDANT
COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH REGION BY FRI AFTN-FRI NGT, ALLOWING FOR
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS OF THE PERIOD. LAPSE
RATES/SHEAR/WIND FLOW APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE RISK AND WILL KEEP LONG-TERM HWO CLEAR. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER FRI/SAT GIVEN GREATER CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN UPPER
80S. DEPENDING OF COVERAGE, SOME AREAS MAY ONLY MAKE IT LOW TO MID
80S, WHICH WOULD BE 3-7F BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST.

EXPECT RAIN/TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVRNGT FRI INTO SAT AS
FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH TOWARDS HWY-82/I-20 CORRIDOR. GFS NOT AS
BULLISH IN BRINGING THE FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH WITH EC AGREEING.
HAVE UPPED/EXTENDED POPS FORWARD IN TIME FOR SAT. ISO/SCT ACTIVITY
COULD BE PSBL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 SAT/SUN AFTNS BUT OVERALL
PWATS COULD BE REDUCED TO 1.5-1.7" RANGE. MODELS DIVERGE SUN/MON
WITH EC BEING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH AND PUSHES THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THROUGH BY MON/MON NGT. NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT ON
THIS SOLUTION AND PLACE MORE WEIGHT TOWARDS GFS TO AND WAIT FOR A
SOLID TREND.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...MAV POPS WERE UPPED 10-20% FRIDAY AND
EXTENDING FORWARD IN TIME INTO SAT MRNG WITH THE SLOWER/NEARLY
STALLING FRONT. LOWS WERE TWEAKED UPWARD AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE
WHILE UNDER BLANKET OF NOCTURNAL CLOUDS. MEXMOS HIGHS WERE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 08Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. PATCHY
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING MVFR CATEGORY FOG WL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH...SE
AT MEI AND HBG. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE NEAR GLH BY 03Z TUE. THE RISK FOR TSTMS WILL INCREASE TODAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DURING THE MORNING AT GLH/GWO AND MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR JAN/GTR/MEI/HBG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 18Z TUE AND
STALL ACROSS THE SOUTH BY 00Z WED. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  72  90  70 /  53  31  21   9
MERIDIAN      92  72  91  69 /  52  51  45  12
VICKSBURG     92  70  90  68 /  50  26  17   6
HATTIESBURG   94  75  93  71 /  37  34  49  13
NATCHEZ       91  73  89  70 /  44  26  20   7
GREENVILLE    93  69  88  68 /  60  26   8   8
GREENWOOD     92  70  88  66 /  60  28  11  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/ALLEN/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
514 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>050-141015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-
514 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE DELTA AND THEN
AGAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

LAZ023>026-MSZ051>066-072>074-141015-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
514 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

22

MSZ018-019-131310-
SUNFLOWER MS-BOLIVAR MS-
712 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
712 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 26 MILES NORTH OF DEESON TO 19 MILES NORTHWEST
OF GUNNISON AT 712 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN BOLIVAR AND NORTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3399 9065 3398 9044 3381 9044 3382 9106
      3387 9108 3393 9102 3397 9110 3400 9101
      3396 9098 3402 9099 3403 9090 3409 9088
      3409 9092 3412 9096 3412 9095 3413 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 1212Z 287DEG 32KT 3439 9092 3408 9121

MME