Severe Thunderstorm Warning 462, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE REGION WILL NOT MAKE IT
THROUGH THE CWA...AND WE WILL REMAIN UNDER GENERAL TROUGHING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL HELP TO GENERATE MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHILE MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE DELTA EARLY TUESDAY WITH PW VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 1
INCH OR LESS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE 2 INCH PW AIR TO
AROUND THE PINE BELT REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIME PERIOD
WILL BE MORE SEASONAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
INVASION OF SOME DRIER AIR AS WELL AS THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. /27/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE MED RANGE/LONG
TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A STOUT RIDGE
AXIS TO OUR WEST AND AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION UNDER A NW FLOW TYPE PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY OFFERS TRICKY
TIMING ISSUES WITH ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL AS FAST MOVING S/WV'S DIVE
SE. OVERALL...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE PATTERN...BUT DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING OF THE MAIN S/WV'S WHICH WILL DRIVE THE
GREATEST STORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE PERIOD DOES NOT LOOK
WET...BUT SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR RAIN WITH THE MAJORITY
OCCURRING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL...POPS
FOR THE WED-SAT PERIOD WERE LOWERED FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME
AREAS WERE LEFT ALONG WITH A PERIOD OR TWO MATCHING THE LATEST GFS
GUIDANCE.

THERE ARE A FEW SPECIFICS THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON...THE FIRST IS
SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE NW HALF FOR THU. DUE TO
THIS...POPS WERE LOWERED ACROSS THAT AREA. THE MAIN TIMING ISSUES
ARE FOR THU NGT/FRI. POPS WERE LEFT ALONE THU NGT. FOR FRI...POPS
WERE LOWERED ACROSS THE NW TO FOLLOW MORE WITH THE EURO/GFS
ENSEMBLE. SAT LOOKS DRY AS MODELS SHOW A PATCH OF DRIER AIR IN PLACE
IN THE WAKE OF A S/WV AND PRESENCE OF A WEAK/STALLING SFC FRONT. BY
SUN/MON...A MORE COMPLICATED SETUP LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND LINGERING NW FLOW.

AS FOR TEMPS...GUID DIDN'T SEEM TOO BAD AND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS WERE TWEAKED UPWARD FOR THE WED-FRI DAY
PERIODS. REASONING IS BASED ON THE AREA BEING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ZONE WHERE AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS LOOKS TO SETUP.
ADDITIONALLY...ENSEMBLE MOS SUPPORTS WARMER READINGS AS WELL. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...TSTM ACTIVITY STARTED EARLY AND HAS BEEN GREATEST IN THE
NORTH AND EAST BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR DUE TO NEARLY
STALLED COLD FRONT. AWAY FROM TSTMS VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING
REPORTED AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z. SOME DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO
THE DELTA BY 12Z TUESDAY AND LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT
ELSEWHERE...MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS LOOK POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TUESDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  95  70  95 /  33  24  18  18
MERIDIAN      71  94  70  96 /  27  29  20  18
VICKSBURG     70  95  67  94 /  35  19  14  13
HATTIESBURG   73  96  73  96 /  24  48  28  39
NATCHEZ       72  94  69  93 /  28  32  19  24
GREENVILLE    71  93  69  94 /  23  10  12   8
GREENWOOD     71  93  69  95 /  20  11  11  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

27/CME/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034>036-
040>043-047>050-053>066-072>074-072000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
255 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FREQUENT TO NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

MSZ026>033-037>039-044>046-051-052-072000-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
255 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JACKSON                 32.32N 90.21W
08/06/2012                   HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN JACKSON ALONG STATE ST IN
            FONDREN AREA AS WELL AS ON HIGH ST. RELAYED THROUGH
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

AWEBER

MSZ025-062230-
LEFLORE MS-
502 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
502 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF SUNNYSIDE AT 502 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN LEFLORE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3378 9017 3376 9019 3374 9030 3372 9031
      3370 9027 3374 9024 3373 9021 3373 9014
      3368 9013 3366 9010 3358 9010 3359 9045
      3380 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 006DEG 3KT 3371 9024

BK

MSZ054-062235-
COPIAH MS-
506 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
506 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WERE
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF DENTVILLE AND JUST EAST OF ALLEN AT 505 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN COPIAH COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3170 9074 3179 9074 3201 9061 3192 9043
      3170 9051 3169 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 030DEG 8KT 3189 9057

BK

MSZ019-062240-
SUNFLOWER MS-
511 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
511 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER INDIANOLA AT 511 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3349 9054 3327 9062 3327 9063 3331 9076
      3353 9076 3355 9075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 021DEG 4KT 3344 9068

BK

MSZ047-062255-
WARREN MS-
523 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
523 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF OAK RIDGE AT 523 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3258 9082 3256 9073 3258 9073 3261 9071
      3260 9069 3259 9069 3258 9065 3255 9065
      3255 9059 3242 9065 3248 9086 3252 9086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 029DEG 8KT 3252 9073

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
528 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKSON                 32.32N 90.21W
08/06/2012                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN AT WOOD ST AND PEACH ORCHARD PLACE. ANOTHER
            DOWN AT ST ANN AND LAUREL ST.

&&

AWEBER