Severe Thunderstorm Warning 426, NWS Jackson, MS

682 
WWUS54 KJAN 182037
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

MSC023-061-182047-
/O.EXP.KJAN.SV.W.0426.000000T0000Z-120718T2045Z/
JASPER MS-CLARKE MS-
337 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE AND
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3183 8886 3182 8887 3182 8893 3182 8894
      3182 8895 3182 8902 3193 8901 3195 8886
      3183 8880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 351DEG 6KT 3184 8892

$$

BK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
858 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

.UPDATE...AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT MCV SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE GA TUTT
CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...ONE NEAR THE MS COAST AND ANOTHER IN NW AL
HEADING SW. AIRMASS FEATURING 2 INCH PWATS ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER
SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR INITIAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL
INCREASE/SPREAD SWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE BOOSTED POPS ALONG AND
E OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY WITH LIKELY CATEGORY INCLUDING GUSTY
WINDS IN THE I-59/HIGHWAY 45 CORRIDORS. THE WWD EXTENT OF THE RAINS
IS A TOUGH CALL HOWEVER...MORNING MICROBURST CHECKLISTS IN THE
RISK/LIKELY RANGE AS NEARLY 4K J/KG SBCAPES OCCUR WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 72-74F. DCAPES OF 1000-1100J/KG ARE ALSO FAVORABLE.

MEANWHILE...HOTTEST HEAT INDEXES 105-107F SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN
AN HOUR OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE DELTA COUNTIES. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
FOR NOW AND UPDATES SHOULD BE POSTED./40/

&&

.AVIATION...THINNING CLOUD DEBRIS IN ERN MS WILL GIVE WAY TO
DEVELOPING BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD 3-5K FEET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TSRA ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER SHOULD SPREAD SWWD AND BECOME
NUMEROUS ALONG AND E OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE FROM 19Z-03Z AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ROTATES IN FROM THE E. ELSEWHERE...VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS LIKELY
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 08-13Z...MAINLY NEAR PREVIOUS SHRA
LOCATIONS THAT OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. OVERALL SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE WSWLY 4-8KT EACH DAY...EXCEPT GUSTY AT 35-50KTS WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS...BEFORE DYING OFF TO LESS THAN 5KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. /40/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012/
SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER DAMP PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE SETTING UP FOR THE THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD AS MID/UPPER HIGH
CENTERS LOOK TO BECOME ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. RESULTING TROFFINESS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL ALLOW TUTT LOW...PRESENTLY OVER GA...TO BECOME MORE OF A SHEAR
AXIS ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH TIME AND PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN CONSIDERING THE RICHNESS OF MOISTURE (PW/S
AROUNS 2 INCHES) IN PLACE AND THE WEAK MEAN LAYER FLOW AS STORM
PROPAGATION WILL BE SERVED MORE BY COLD POOL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST FOR TODAY AS MODELS
AGREE WITH VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 30C AND DCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THESE VALUES LOWER SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO MOS POPS...ADJUSTING UPWARD TO THE EAST WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. MOS MAX TEMPS LOOKED A BIT HIGH WITH THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION...SO CUT A FEW DEGREES...ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST./26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS WHILE AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MS RIVER WILL BE UNDER A WEAK MEAN TROUGH...WHICH WILL EXTEND
DOWN TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THE CENTER OF THE MEAN TROUGH EAST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES/CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES(MCS) FROM THE NORTH. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY TO BRING A WEAK
BACKDOOR SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIMITED LIFT.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG STORM POTENTIAL
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY PRIMARILY FOR GUSTY WINDS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK DAY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND AS IT CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE MEAN RIDGE THIS WILL REDUCE OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR NEXT WEEK.

ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LAST THREE NIGHTS THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 80S ECMWF. WENT
CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS AND CUT TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM A BLEND OF
ENSEMBLES...MEX AND GMOS. ON POPS WENT CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GMOS AND
MEX MOS GUIDANCE./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED MVFR VSBYS AROUND 3 MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING FROM KGTR-KMEI-KHBG DUE TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN SE MS/AL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST UNTIL AROUND 18/1800Z WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY BETWEEN KGTR-KMEI-KHBG. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY 19/0200Z...BUT MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP MOST AREAS
THEREAFTER./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       96  73  92  74 /  46  24  51  40
MERIDIAN      92  72  91  73 /  66  43  60  53
VICKSBURG     94  74  93  72 /  19  13  43  28
HATTIESBURG   93  74  90  74 /  69  27  64  34
NATCHEZ       92  73  92  73 /  43  15  47  18
GREENVILLE    95  76  93  75 /  20  12  48  25
GREENWOOD     95  74  94  75 /  34  24  56  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
111 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
191815-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
111 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

BRIEF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS FROM 40 TO 60 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS.
THE SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT EACH DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

40

MSZ058-181955-
CLARKE MS-
224 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
224 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER SYKES AT 224 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN CLARKE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3200 8846 3190 8846 3185 8865 3216 8873
      3221 8853 3203 8844 3201 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 344DEG 14KT 3210 8860

BK

MSZ031-182000-
LOWNDES MS-
228 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
228 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS AT 228 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3330 8830 3329 8837 3329 8843 3357 8846
      3360 8826
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 350DEG 10KT 3349 8833

BK

MSZ056-057-065-066-182000-
SMITH MS-JONES MS-JASPER MS-COVINGTON MS-
230 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER TAYLORSVILLE AT 230 PM CDT...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN JASPER...NORTHWESTERN
JONES AND SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3178 8922 3169 8938 3183 8949 3193 8938
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 320DEG 13KT 3184 8941

BK

MSZ031-182005-
LOWNDES MS-
234 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
234 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER COLUMBUS AIR FORCE BASE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER COLUMBUS AFB AT 234 PM CDT...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3351 8827 3342 8846 3355 8852 3352 8848
      3358 8849 3360 8847 3362 8851 3364 8850
      3366 8851 3367 8850 3367 8843 3370 8840
      3370 8836 3358 8826
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 332DEG 7KT 3362 8843

BK

MSZ029-032-182030-
WEBSTER MS-CHOCTAW MS-
259 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
259 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF MATHISTON AT
259 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW AND CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3366 8908 3356 8906 3356 8909 3350 8909
      3341 8909 3340 8930 3365 8930
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 356DEG 6KT 3357 8918

BK

MSZ057-058-182035-
JASPER MS-CLARKE MS-
304 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
304 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER STAFFORD SPRINGS AT 304 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3183 8879 3182 8894 3182 8900 3195 8905
      3202 8886 3184 8874
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 336DEG 8KT 3190 8891

BK