Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Jackson, MS

496 
WWUS54 KJAN 172003
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
303 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

MSC083-172013-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0234.000000T0000Z-120517T2030Z/
LEFLORE MS-
303 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LEFLORE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS WEAKENED 
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

LAT...LON 3373 9031 3370 9030 3371 9026 3362 9010
      3351 9010 3339 9021 3357 9045 3363 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 305DEG 8KT 3358 9029

$$

JA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1107 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MS AND SOUTHEAST AR. LATEST LOCAL WRF AND RUC
MODEL DATA INDICATE SOME CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS IN THIS AREA TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN AREAS OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE. /27/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING EDGES EWD
TODAY AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST. THE REGION WILL SIT IN
NLY FLOW BETWEEN FLAT RIDGING CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST AND FLAT
UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR EAST TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY AND
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE MOISTURE WILL
BE INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAV MOS
TEMPERATURES AND DRY FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE FOLLOWED. /03/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE REGION SITS
BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND GENERALLY TROUGHING TO THE EAST.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT HAVE
CURRENTLY LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A
FORCING MECHANISM FOR THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW PW
VALUES BARELY EXCEEDING AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME DRIER
AIR EVEN PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING. BETTER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE DELTA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
ABOUT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT BULLISH IN BRINGING
THE FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH...SO IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH MOISTURE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION(PW VALUES AROUND 1.2-1.4
INCHES). TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. DAYS WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD
JUST MAKE IT TO THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST COULD
DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRIER AIR
SUGGESTED TO MOVE IN BY THE MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  58  90  62 /   2   4   9   9
MERIDIAN      88  56  88  60 /   3   6   9   9
VICKSBURG     88  56  88  60 /   2   3  10   9
HATTIESBURG   89  58  90  63 /   2   4   8   9
NATCHEZ       87  58  87  61 /   2   4   8   5
GREENVILLE    89  60  90  64 /  20   3  10   8
GREENWOOD     88  58  89  63 /  18   3  10   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

27/03/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
138 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
181845-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
138 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

26

MSZ019-025-171940-
SUNFLOWER MS-LEFLORE MS-
209 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
209 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTHWEST OF GREENWOOD...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF MINTER CITY AT
209 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN LEFLORE AND EAST CENTRAL SUNFLOWER COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3376 9025 3374 9030 3372 9031 3370 9030
      3370 9027 3374 9024 3357 9016 3350 9041
      3380 9051 3382 9043 3382 9029
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 341DEG 13KT 3374 9037

BYB