Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM AS SEVERAL POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CURRENT RADARS SHOW BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...GENERALLY FROM BASTROP TO THE JACKSON
METRO AREA TO JUST NORTH OF HATTIESBURG. THERE ARE ALSO SOME STORMS
BEHIND THIS LINE MOVING NORTH FROM PIKE AND AMITE COUNTIES IN
LOUISIANA. THIS MAIN LINE IS PRODUCING SEVERE WIND DAMAGE WITH MOST
REPORTS BEING TREES COMING DOWN AND SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL AS IT
CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY
3500-4000 J/KG SBCAPE...2000-2600 J/KG MLCAPE...28-29C VERTICAL
TOTALS...AND -8 TO -12 SFC LI PER RUC ANALYSIS. THIS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE SEVERITY OF THE LINE OF STORMS AS
IT MOVED OUT OF THE LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA AREA EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEVERE AS IT CONTINUES TO
THE NORTH AND EAST UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO REDUCE
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND WAS EVEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE
PINE BELT REGION THROUGH 8PM.

HI-RES WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE WANING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY WANES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-20 AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS DIMINISH LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STORMS WILL
EVOLVE. MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN
AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM GOING THROUGH TODAY WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT
TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES REACH
INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN. MUCAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
1800-2000J/KG...28-29C VERTICAL TOTALS...BUT WIND SHEAR WILL AGAIN
BE RATHER WEAK AS WELL AS MID LEVEL FLOW. WHATEVER BOUNDARIES THIS
SYSTEM TODAY LEAVES AROUND COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW...THESE
STORMS WOULD BE OF PULSE TYPE VARIETY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR TOMORROW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STORM COVERAGE.

THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND HOW MUCH
COVERAGE WE WILL SEE. HOWEVER...PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER IN TERMS OF
WIND SHEAR...MID LEVEL FLOW...LAPSE RATES THAN THEY HAVE FOR THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE VALUES OF SHEAR ARE STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WHICH COULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GIVEN THE
FORCING AND LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW TRACKING CLOSER...WE COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. THE BEST LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND END MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. /28/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO GET REDEVELOPMENT OF
MOSTLY DIURNAL SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW...EXPECT THE STUBBORN MID LEVEL RIDGE TO REBUILD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN MORE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING LOCALIZED MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VIS. THESE STORMS BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL
SIZE. THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN WILL WANE THROUGH THE
EVENING AFTER 01-02Z. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG WILL REDEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING
AFTER ABOUT 15Z TUESDAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       62  85  65  82 /  51  20  22  55
MERIDIAN      61  87  61  81 /  43  23  12  46
VICKSBURG     62  86  64  82 /  40  16  33  58
HATTIESBURG   64  88  65  83 /  41  17  18  50
NATCHEZ       64  85  66  83 /  21  16  38  63
GREENVILLE    64  85  65  85 /  51  17  44  55
GREENWOOD     65  85  66  84 /  46  23  36  55

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-
040>045-047>051-053>057-059>066-072>074-031900-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
310 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL PUSH TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. ALTHOUGH NOT
LIKELY ONE OR TWO TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THE SEVERE RISK WILL DIMINISH WEST OF A LINE FROM LAKE PROVIDENCE TO
VICKSBURG TO BROOKHAVEN AROUND 5 PM BUT WILL CONTINUE OVER SOME EAST
MISSISSIPPI ZONES THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM.

THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...THE PRIMARY RISK BEING DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH
AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS LIKELY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

MSZ029>033-038-039-046-052-058-031900-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-KEMPER-
LAUDERDALE-CLARKE-
310 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST EARLIER TODAY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI SINCE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY
MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 TO 9 PM. DAMAGING WINDS AROUND
60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK ALONG WITH LARGE QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...THE PRIMARY RISK BEING DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH
AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 PM CDT MON APR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE PETAL             31.40N 89.22W
04/02/2012                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWNED BLOCKING ROBERTSON RD

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT MON APR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKE PROVIDENCE         32.81N 91.18W
04/02/2012                   EAST CARROLL       LA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREE DOWNED BLOCKING 4TH STREET

&&

DL

MSZ055>058-065-066-022145-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-JONES MS-JASPER MS-COVINGTON MS-CLARKE MS-
400 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS MOVING NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TAYLORSVILLE TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MILL CREEK AT 359 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

SPORADIC REPORTS OF WINDS TO 50 MPH AND SOME MINOR WIND DAMAGE HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM THIS LINE OF STORMS.  PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN
CLARKE...NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON...JASPER...NORTHERN JONES...AND
SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3183 8876 3182 8894 3152 8894 3178 8965
      3222 8967 3210 8865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 235DEG 9KT 3174 8953 3158 8887

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 PM CDT MON APR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PORT GIBSON             31.96N 90.98W
04/02/2012                   CLAIBORNE          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN COUNTY WIDE ACROSS CLAIBORNE
            COUNTY

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT MON APR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROOKHAVEN              31.58N 90.45W
04/02/2012                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED ACROSS BROOKHAVEN
            AND LINCOLN COUNTY

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 PM CDT MON APR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLLINSTON              32.69N 91.87W
04/02/2012                   MOREHOUSE          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO TREES DOWN

&&

GERARD