Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Warnings in 2012

River Flood Warning 10, NWS Jackson, MS

February 19, 2012Neshoba County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this river flood warning at Feb 19, 2012, 10:34 AM CST for Neshoba County, Mississippi. It took effect at Feb 20, 2012, 12:00 AM CST. It was in force for 59 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Feb 19, 2012, 10:34 AM CST (16:34 UTC)
In effect from: Feb 20, 2012, 12:00 AM CST
Expired: Feb 22, 2012, 10:34 AM CST
In force: 59 hr
Issued by: NWS Jackson, MS
Flood severity: Minor

County Neshoba County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Pearl River near Philadelphia/at Burnside (PLAM6). The gauge peaked at 13.27 ft at Feb 21, 2012, 4:00 AM CST.

Action stage: 12 ft
Minor stage: 13 ft
Moderate stage: 16 ft
Major stage: 23 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02481880, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

882 
WGUS44 KJAN 191634
FLWJAN
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1034 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012


...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI... 


  PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF 
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD 
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T 
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT TIBBEE 
CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER 
WHERE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL ARE ROUTINELY USED.


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM.

&&

MSC099-202234-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0010.120220T0600Z-120223T0900Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.120220T0600Z.120221T0600Z.120222T0300Z.NO/
1034 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 9:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT 
  TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.2 FEET BY EARLY 
  TUESDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT BURNSIDE LAKE WATER 
  PARK.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST TIME  DATE

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA   13  12.9 SUN 10 AM  13.0  13.2  12.9  13.2 12 AM 02/21

$$

7 follow-up statements

351 
WGUS84 KJAN 200207
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSISSIPPI...

  PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR ROCKPORT AFFECTING COPIAH AND SIMPSON COUNTIES 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO AFFECTING LAWRENCE COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA AFFECTING MARION COUNTY 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF 
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD 
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T 
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT TIBBEE 
CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER 
WHERE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL ARE ROUTINELY USED.


THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

&&

MSC099-210807-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0010.120220T0600Z-120223T1200Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.120220T0600Z.120221T0000Z.120222T0600Z.NO/
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT 
  TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.2 FEET BY EARLY 
  TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT BURNSIDE LAKE WATER 
  PARK.

&&

              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST TIME  DATE

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA   13  12.9 SUN 08 PM  13.1  13.2  12.9  13.2 12 AM 02/21

$$

MSC029-127-210806-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120223T0000Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.120219T1800Z.120220T0600Z.120221T1800Z.NO/
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR ROCKPORT
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT  4:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON 
  AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 26.5 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT 
  TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW PASTURELAND AND 
  BOTTOMLAND IS OCCURRING.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF BOTTOMLANDS IS OCCURRING 
  IN THE IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY OF THE RIVER.

&&

              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST TIME  DATE

MIDDLE PEARL RIVER
ROCKPORT       25  22.5 SAT 04 PM  26.4  25.3  24.0  26.5 12 AM 02/20

$$

MSC077-210806-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120223T2300Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.120219T0745Z.120221T0600Z.120223T0800Z.NO/
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  7:15 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 24.5 FEET BY 
  EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO FLOOD LOWER PORTIONS OF 
  COOPER'S FERRY PARK IN MONTICELLO.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...WATER APPEARS IN LOW AREAS IN THE EXTREME 
  EASTERN PORTION OF THE CITY OF MONTICELLO.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...WATER INUNDATES SOME LOWLAND AND 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND NEAR THE RIVER.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO ENTER SOME LOWLAND PASTURE 
  LAND IN THE VICINITY OF MONTICELLO .

&&

              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST TIME  DATE

MIDDLE PEARL RIVER
MONTICELLO     22  23.0 SUN 07 PM  23.6  24.5  23.2  24.5 12 AM 02/21

$$

MSC091-210806-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0008.120221T1200Z-120222T2100Z/
/CLMM6.1.ER.120221T1200Z.120221T1200Z.120222T0600Z.NO/
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA
* FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  7:15 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE 
  TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...LOW AREAS NEAR THE RIVER BEGIN TO FLOOD. 
  WATER COVERS OLD HIGHWAY 35 ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIVER.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...CAMP LANE ROAD SOUTH OF COLUMBIA ON THE EAST
  SIDE OF THE RIVER BEGINS TO FLOOD.

&&

              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST TIME  DATE

LOWER PEARL RIVER
COLUMBIA       17  16.0 SUN 07 PM  16.3  17.0  16.9  17.0 12 AM 02/22

$$

030 
WGUS84 KJAN 200220 CCA
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT ...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MISSISSIPPI...

  PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY
  PEARL RIVER NEAR ROCKPORT AFFECTING COPIAH AND SIMPSON COUNTIES
  PEARL RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO AFFECTING LAWRENCE COUNTY
  PEARL RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA AFFECTING MARION COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT TIBBEE
CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER
WHERE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL ARE ROUTINELY USED.


THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

&&

MSC099-210807-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0010.120220T0600Z-120223T1200Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.120220T0600Z.120221T0000Z.120222T0600Z.NO/
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT
  TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.2 FEET BY EARLY
  TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT BURNSIDE LAKE WATER
  PARK.

&&

              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST TIME  DATE

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA   13  12.9 SUN 08 PM  13.1  13.2  12.9  13.2 12 AM 02/21

$$

MSC029-127-210806-
/O.COR.KJAN.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120223T0000Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.120219T1800Z.120220T0600Z.120221T1800Z.NO/
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR ROCKPORT
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT 1:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON
  AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 26.5 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT
  TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW PASTURELAND AND
  BOTTOMLAND IS OCCURRING.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF BOTTOMLANDS IS OCCURRING
  IN THE IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY OF THE RIVER.

&&

              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST TIME  DATE

MIDDLE PEARL RIVER
ROCKPORT       25  26.0 SUN 01 PM  26.4  25.3  24.0  26.5 12 AM 02/20

$$

MSC077-210806-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120223T2300Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.120219T0745Z.120221T0600Z.120223T0800Z.NO/
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  7:15 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 24.5 FEET BY
  EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO FLOOD LOWER PORTIONS OF
  COOPER'S FERRY PARK IN MONTICELLO.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...WATER APPEARS IN LOW AREAS IN THE EXTREME
  EASTERN PORTION OF THE CITY OF MONTICELLO.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...WATER INUNDATES SOME LOWLAND AND
  AGRICULTURAL LAND NEAR THE RIVER.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO ENTER SOME LOWLAND PASTURE
  LAND IN THE VICINITY OF MONTICELLO .

&&

              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST TIME  DATE

MIDDLE PEARL RIVER
MONTICELLO     22  23.0 SUN 07 PM  23.6  24.5  23.2  24.5 12 AM 02/21

$$

MSC091-210806-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0008.120221T1200Z-120222T2100Z/
/CLMM6.1.ER.120221T1200Z.120221T1200Z.120222T0600Z.NO/
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA
* FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  7:15 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE
  TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...LOW AREAS NEAR THE RIVER BEGIN TO FLOOD.
  WATER COVERS OLD HIGHWAY 35 ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIVER.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...CAMP LANE ROAD SOUTH OF COLUMBIA ON THE EAST
  SIDE OF THE RIVER BEGINS TO FLOOD.

&&

              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST TIME  DATE

LOWER PEARL RIVER
COLUMBIA       17  16.0 SUN 07 PM  16.3  17.0  16.9  17.0 12 AM 02/22

$$

011 
WGUS84 KJAN 201457
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
857 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI...


  PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR ROCKPORT AFFECTING COPIAH AND SIMPSON COUNTIES 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO AFFECTING LAWRENCE COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA AFFECTING MARION COUNTY 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF 
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD 
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T 
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT TIBBEE 
CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER 
WHERE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL ARE ROUTINELY USED.


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM.

&&

MSC099-212057-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120223T1800Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.120220T1800Z.120221T1200Z.120222T1200Z.NO/
857 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7:45 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON 
  AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.2 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT BURNSIDE LAKE WATER 
  PARK.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST TIME  DATE

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA   13  13.0 MON 08 AM  13.2  13.0  12.8  13.2 06 AM 02/21

$$

MSC029-127-212057-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120223T0600Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.120219T1300Z.120220T1800Z.120222T0000Z.NO/
857 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR ROCKPORT
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 7:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS ESTIMATED AT 26.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS CRESTING.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW PASTURELAND AND 
  BOTTOMLAND IS OCCURRING.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST TIME  DATE

MIDDLE PEARL RIVER
ROCKPORT       25  26.0 SUN 01 PM  25.8  24.2  23.2    CRESTING          

$$

MSC077-212057-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120224T1800Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.120219T0745Z.120221T1800Z.120224T0300Z.NO/
857 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 8:15 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 24.5 FEET BY 
  EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO FLOOD LOWER PORTIONS OF 
  COOPER'S FERRY PARK IN MONTICELLO.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...WATER APPEARS IN LOW AREAS IN THE EXTREME 
  EASTERN PORTION OF THE CITY OF MONTICELLO.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST TIME  DATE

MIDDLE PEARL RIVER
MONTICELLO     22  23.3 MON 08 AM  24.3  24.3  23.0  24.5 12 PM 02/21

$$

MSC091-212057-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0008.120222T1200Z-120224T0900Z/
/CLMM6.1.ER.120222T1200Z.120222T1200Z.120223T1800Z.NO/
857 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 8:15 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...LOW AREAS NEAR THE RIVER BEGIN TO FLOOD. 
  WATER COVERS OLD HIGHWAY 35 ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIVER.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST TIME  DATE

LOWER PEARL RIVER
COLUMBIA       17  16.0 MON 08 AM  16.5  17.0  17.0  17.0 06 AM 02/22

$$

511 
WGUS84 KJAN 210312
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
912 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSISSIPPI...

  PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO AFFECTING LAWRENCE COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA AFFECTING MARION COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR ROCKPORT AFFECTING COPIAH AND SIMPSON COUNTIES 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF 
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD 
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T 
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT TIBBEE 
CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER 
WHERE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL ARE ROUTINELY USED.


THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

&&

MSC099-220912-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120223T0600Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.120220T1745Z.120221T1200Z.120222T0000Z.NO/
912 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012


THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  8:45 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.2 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW 
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT BURNSIDE LAKE WATER 
  PARK.

&&

              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST TIME  DATE

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA   13  13.1 MON 09 PM  13.2  12.8  12.3  13.2 06 AM 02/21

$$

MSC029-127-220912-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120223T0600Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.120219T1300Z.120219T1900Z.120222T0000Z.NO/
912 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012


THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR ROCKPORT
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  1:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW PASTURELAND AND 
  BOTTOMLAND IS OCCURRING.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF BOTTOMLANDS IS OCCURRING 
  IN THE IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY OF THE RIVER.

&&

              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST TIME  DATE

MIDDLE PEARL RIVER
ROCKPORT       25  26.0 SUN 01 PM  25.7  24.2  23.2     CRESTED

$$

MSC077-220912-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120224T2100Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.120219T0745Z.120221T1800Z.120224T0600Z.NO/
912 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  8:15 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 24.5 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...WATER APPEARS IN LOW AREAS IN THE EXTREME 
  EASTERN PORTION OF THE CITY OF MONTICELLO.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...WATER INUNDATES SOME LOWLAND AND 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND NEAR THE RIVER.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO ENTER SOME LOWLAND PASTURE 
  LAND IN THE VICINITY OF MONTICELLO .

&&

              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST TIME  DATE

MIDDLE PEARL RIVER
MONTICELLO     22  23.5 MON 08 PM  24.0  24.1  22.9  24.5 06 PM 02/21

$$

MSC091-220912-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0008.120222T1800Z-120224T0900Z/
/CLMM6.1.ER.120222T1800Z.120222T1800Z.120223T1800Z.NO/
912 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012


THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA
* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT  8:15 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...LOW AREAS NEAR THE RIVER BEGIN TO FLOOD. 
  WATER COVERS OLD HIGHWAY 35 ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIVER.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...CAMP LANE ROAD SOUTH OF COLUMBIA ON THE EAST
  SIDE OF THE RIVER BEGINS TO FLOOD.

&&

              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST TIME  DATE

LOWER PEARL RIVER
COLUMBIA       17  16.1 MON 08 PM  16.4  16.9  17.0  17.0 12 PM 02/23

$$

630 
WGUS84 KJAN 211415
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
815 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2012




...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSISSIPPI...

  PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF 
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD 
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T 
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT TIBBEE 
CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER 
WHERE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL ARE ROUTINELY USED.


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM.

&&

MSC099-222015-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120223T1200Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.120220T1745Z.120221T1230Z.120222T0600Z.NO/
815 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT BURNSIDE LAKE WATER 
  PARK.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   WED   THU   FRI CREST TIME  DATE

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA   13  13.2 TUE 08 AM  12.9  12.5  12.0     CRESTING         

$$

634 
WGUS84 KJAN 220115
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
715 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSISSIPPI...

  PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF 
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD 
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T 
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

&&

MSC099-230715-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120223T1800Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.120220T1745Z.120221T1230Z.120222T1200Z.NO/
715 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 6:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.1 FEET AND SLOWLY FALLING. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   WED   THU   FRI CREST TIME  DATE

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA   13  13.1 TUE  7 PM  13.0  12.6  12.2      FALLING

$$

DL

691 
WGUS84 KJAN 221634
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1034 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN MISSISSIPPI...
 
  PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY
  PEARL RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA AFFECTING MARION COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF 
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD 
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T 
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT TIBBEE 
CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER 
WHERE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL ARE ROUTINELY USED.


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM.

&&

MSC099-221704-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120223T1800Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.120220T1745Z.120221T1230Z.120222T1445Z.NO/
1034 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA.
* AT  9:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  8:45 AM WEDNESDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 12.6 FEET BY TOMORROW
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT BURNSIDE LAKE WATER 
  PARK.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   THU   FRI   SAT CREST TIME  DATE

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA   13  13.0 WED 10 AM  12.6  12.3  11.8     FALLING

$$

MSC091-221704-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120223T0900Z/
/CLMM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1034 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA.
* AT 10:15 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 16.4 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL TO 16.1 FEET BY .
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...CAMP LANE ROAD SOUTH OF COLUMBIA ON THE EAST
  SIDE OF THE RIVER BEGINS TO FLOOD.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   THU   FRI   SAT CREST TIME  DATE

LOWER PEARL RIVER
COLUMBIA       17  16.4 WED 10 AM  16.1  15.7  15.2     FALLING

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 19, 4:13 AM CST, 6 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 19, 4:13 AM CST, 6 hours 21 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL DEPART THE
ARKLAMISS REGION QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING FROM AL TO GA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX REGION WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS...BUT EXPECT SUBSIDING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE ARKLAMISS. MAV MOS HIGHS
LOOK A LITTLE MILD AT FIRST GLANCE...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION AND THUS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH MAV VALUES.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PERFECT POSITION
FOR NIGHTTIME COOLING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TONIGHT LEADING
TO A LIGHT FREEZE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST GFS INDICATES THAT MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE QUICK-MOVING TROUGH AND THUS ONLY LIGHT
AND SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL
FOR TSTMS. /EC/

TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AN EXPECTED RELAXATION OF THE RECENTLY
QUITE NEGATIVE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN MAY
BRING THE ARKLAMISS REGION A RESPITE FROM FREQUENT SOAKINGS...AT
LEAST FOR A WHILE. BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL NOT STILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW SHOTS AT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME BECAUSE THE FLOW
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR THIS
WEEK (IN COMPARISON TO THE PAST WEEK OR TWO) IS THAT DISTURBANCES
COMING DOWN THE PIKE SHOULD NOT BE AS VIGOROUS AND MAJOR ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH. BOTH OF
THOSE TWO FACTORS ARGUE AGAINST BOUTS OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
STORMS FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

THE FIRST SUCH WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EASTERN MS BEFORE MIDDAY...BUT A GOOD DEAL OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GETTING QUITE MILD.

ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY ALOFT IS SET TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...ACTIVATING A SUBTLE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE BULK OF RESULTANT SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST
A FEW SHOWERS AND A STRAY STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ARKLAMISS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY RATHER MILD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW...WARMTH AND MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT HEADED OUR WAY FOR
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
NOT BE GREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MATERIALIZE IS A BIT OF QUESTION MARK RIGHT
NOW (AND THE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS BARES THAT OUT).
REGARDLESS...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA SHOULD END
OF BEING IN EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MS WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
STRETCH OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS...GFS-BASED MEX GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO NOT
LOOK TERRIBLY BAD...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES (WHERE FORECASTER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE RELATIVELY FEW AND QUITE MINOR). HOWEVER...FOR
PRECIPITATION...MEX GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TOO WET FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY CONSIDERING RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
NEARBY FORCING MECHANISMS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE/-RA
ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ARKLAMISS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. BUT EXPECT QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LEADING TO VFR
AT MOST SITES BY EARLY AFTN. WIND WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BY LATE THIS
AFTN AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  34  64  48 /  25   0   0  16
MERIDIAN      59  32  63  44 /  40   0   0  12
VICKSBURG     59  35  64  48 /  21   0   0  18
HATTIESBURG   62  38  64  51 /  13   0   0  17
NATCHEZ       56  38  65  52 /  13   0   0  17
GREENVILLE    56  34  61  49 /  28   0   0  21
GREENWOOD     56  30  64  49 /  43   0   0  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/BB/

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 19, 4:40 AM CST, 5 hours 54 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
201045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
440 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 18, 6:40 PM CST	Areal Flood Warning	JAN	Covington, Forrest, Jefferson Davis, Jones, Lamar, Marion	6 hr
Feb 18, 8:43 PM CST	River Flood Warning	JAN	Jones	4 days

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2012 Every river flood warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.