Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
314 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.SHORT TERM... / THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT /

SEVERE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AHEAD/ALONG OF A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AND POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. ENOUGH SFC HEATING HAS ALLOWED
MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH MIX OUT TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MEAGER
MID LVL LAPSE RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE NEAR
30 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH STILL PROBABLY ENOUGH FLOW AT MID LEVELS TO
SUPPORT SOME MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION WITH
TIME. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW GIVEN SFC DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25F/HIGH LCL'S AND LITTLE 0-3 KM SHEAR/FLOW.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE PRIMARY THREATS GIVEN
DRY MID LVL ENTRAINMENT AND STEEP SFC-7H LAPSE RATES WITH HIGHER
1000 J/KG PLUS DCAPE VALUES CENTERED ACROSS SERN ZONES. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR INDIANA/SC LOWER MI
ZONES THROUGH 22Z AND OH ZONES BTW 21-00Z. CONTINUED WITH LOWER
CHC POPS BTW 00-06Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.

PLEASANT CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW LVL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES PER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TODAY'S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE COULD BE A RELATIVELY THIN BAND OF LOW
STRATUS TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING
ALONG A LINGERING LOW LVL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER OUT
PER NEGATIVE LOW LVL THETA-E ADVECTION IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND MIXING
WITH VERY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID LVLS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPS...FAVORING WARMER MET/BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW'S
HIGHS AND COOLER MOS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT MINS GIVEN OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM.../SUN-FRI/
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEK AS STRONG UPR
LOW REMAINS NEARLY STNRY OVER NERN CANADA AND STRONG UPR HIGH
PERSISTS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. SHRTWV'S MOVG SE ACROSS OUR
AREA SHOULD BRING OCNL SFC FROPA'S AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...
THOUGH TYPICAL OF MID-SUMMER...  MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
DRY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TO THE LWR GRTLKS SUNDAY WITH RIDGING
HANGING BACK WEST INTO OUR CWA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER FAIR
WX DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MIX OUT INTO
THE M80S. WK SHRTWV MOVG SE FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVG INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE.

ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP SE ACROSS
THE UPR GRTLKS MON AND TO THE LWR GRTLKS TUE MAY RESULT IN SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.  IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM... RIDGING EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WED RESULTING
IN FAIR WX.

POOR MODEL RUN-RUN CONTINUITY WITH NEXT SHRTWV FCST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE UPR GRTLKS THU...BUT 12Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT
FEATURE WITH EARLIER ECMWF RUNS SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM'S CDFNT IN OUR AREA FRIDAY.

&&

...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.AVIATION... / 18Z TAFS /

BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION
THIS AFTN AT BOTH TERMINALS....BEST CHANCES BEFORE 20Z AT SBN AND
BTW 19-22Z AT FWA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS AT FWA DURING THIS
TIME. THERE MAY BE A FEW ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE/PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION ATTM.

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL TRACK INTO OHIO TONIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS
POSSIBLY SINKING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT ALONG A SFC TROUGH
THAT WILL HANG BACK INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. DRY ADVECTION IN
DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW TOMORROW WILL SUPPORT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY
13-15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1146 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

INZ006>009-016>018-023>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-
025-281600-
LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...BRYAN...
WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...
OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1146 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003>005-012>015-020-022-MIZ077>081-281600-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-
WHITE-CASS IN-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...
FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...
BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...
COLDWATER...HILLSDALE
1146 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 /1046 AM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS
OF BERRIEN AND LAPORTE COUNTIES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
AREAS OF BERRIEN AND LAPORTE COUNTIES SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-281600-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
1146 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
401 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

INZ008-009-017-018-272030-
ALLEN IN-DE KALB IN-NOBLE IN-WHITLEY IN-
401 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD WHITLEY...NORTHWESTERN ALLEN...
SOUTHWESTERN DE KALB AND SOUTHEASTERN NOBLE COUNTIES...

AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLUMBIA CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TRI-LAKES...
  CHURUBUSCO...
  COESSE...
  COLLINS...LAKE EVERETT AND ARCOLA...
  BLUE LAKE...
  ARI...EGE AND WALLEN...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND
NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4142 8525 4121 8502 4101 8554 4114 8567
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 237DEG 30KT 4112 8550

NG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
404 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

INZ033-034-272030-
BLACKFORD IN-JAY IN-
404 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN BLACKFORD AND JAY
COUNTIES...

AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUNKIRK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PORTLAND...
  PENNVILLE AND BALBEC...
  CENTER...BLAINE AND COMO...
  COLLEGE CORNER...LIBER AND COLLETT...
  BRYANT...
  WESTCHESTER AND BRICE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND
NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4039 8521 4039 8533 4045 8534 4057 8504
      4057 8480 4037 8481 4032 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 254DEG 34KT 4041 8521

NG

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