Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
344 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING TONIGHT ALONG NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF 500MB RIDGE. LEAD MCS OVER SOUTHERN MN PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR POTENTIAL IMPACT IN OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING. 40KT LLJ
COMING UP THROUGH NEBRASKA AND INTO SE SD WILL LEND SUPPORT TO
REGENERATIVE NATURE OF CONVECTION...BUT MODELS STILL SUPPORT A
FORWARD PROPAGATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION WITH NW/SE ORIENTED
THICKNESS PATTERN TAKING IT DOWN TOWARD OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...NEW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER SW CWA...INITIAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE
OUT OF THE AREA NEAR ISSUANCE BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ADDL DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
TODAY AND SEE HOW MCS HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT TRACKS DOWN TOWARD THE
AREA. MODELS THEN SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING FRONTAL WAVE
TO THE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS...PLACING OUR AREA IN A WELL CAPPED
WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF WED/WED NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED WX/POP GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY AND INTRODUCED PERIOD OF DRY WX FOR SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA WED AFTN/EVE. EXPECT SIMILAR RESPONSE AS TEMPS DID ON
MONDAY WITH SURGING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IN WARM SECTOR WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WOULD EXPECT HEAT
INDICES EXCEEDING 100 FOR SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADV WED AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS WEEK. INITIAL
CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN 345K 850 MB THETA
E AND BETTER BULK SHEAR VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO DIURNAL TIMING
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS CONSIDERING A LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREFORE...KEPT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
GIVEN HOT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CURRENT
THINKING IS THE HEAT INDEX OVER AREAS FROM MARION TO PORTLAND SHOULD
REACH CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAF ISSUANCE /...
MCS FINALLY TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT
THIS COMPLEX TO WORK DOWN INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO GO WITH JUST VCTS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL FACTOR IN SIMILAR FASHION. STILL NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOGSDON
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LOGSDON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
456 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-250900-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
456 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012 /356 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100 UP TO 105 DEGREES
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-250900-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
456 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
259 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

INZ013-015-020-022-023-240730-
CASS IN-FULTON IN-MIAMI IN-PULASKI IN-WHITE IN-
259 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHEASTERN WHITE...CASS...
SOUTHERN MIAMI...SOUTHERN PULASKI AND SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 253 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALTON...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF LOGANSPORT...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GRISSOM AFB AND PERU...
  BUNKER HILL...
  LINCOLN...NEAD AND WELLS...
  MIAMI AND FLORA...
  SANTA FE AND PEORIA...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4107 8694 4099 8648 4076 8595 4059 8595
      4058 8637 4070 8638 4070 8653 4075 8653
      4075 8670 4086 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0658Z 301DEG 30KT 4062 8630

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
401 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

INZ012>015-020-022-023-240845-
CASS IN-FULTON IN-MARSHALL IN-MIAMI IN-PULASKI IN-STARKE IN-WHITE IN-
401 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
WHITE...CASS...MIAMI...PULASKI...SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL...FULTON AND
SOUTHERN STARKE COUNTIES...

AT 356 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WINAMAC...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ROCHESTER...
  LOGANSPORT...
  ROYAL CENTER...
  MEXICO AND WALTON...
  STAR CITY...LAWTON AND HEADLEE...
  THORNHOPE...KEWANNA AND BRUCE LAKE STATION...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4124 8693 4128 8679 4134 8669 4117 8609
      4109 8608 4106 8605 4077 8594 4065 8594
      4065 8589 4058 8587 4059 8636 4061 8638
      4070 8638 4070 8653 4075 8653 4074 8661
      4094 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 306DEG 35KT 4101 8662

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